Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil is selling at 106.41 up 1.70, quiet unexpectedly. Inventories today showed a smaller increase than expected (see full details below) and not much has changed in the geopolitical arena, with Iran still on the front burner. In the US, the ADP jobs reports was very positive.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged just less than 14.6 million barrels per day during the week ending March 2, 18 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 83.9 percent of their operable capacity last week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, 766 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 576 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 171 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 345.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year
Economic Events: (GMT)
- This Week in PetroleumRelease Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Gasoline and Diesel Fuel UpdateRelease Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Weekly Petroleum Status ReportRelease Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
- Heating Oil & Propane Update (October-March) Heating Oil, Propane Residential and Wholesale Price DataRelease Schedule: Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. EST
- Weekly Coal ProductionRelease Schedule: Thursday by 5:00 p.m. EST
- Weekly NYMEX Coal FuturesRelease Schedule: Monday by 5:00 p.m. EST
- Coal News & MarketsRelease Schedule: Monday by 5:00 p.m. EST
- Natural Gas Weekly UpdateRelease Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage ReportRelease Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)
06:30 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls -0.1% -0.2%
French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM) 0.2% -0.4%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
12:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
12:45 EUR Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
13:15 CAD Housing Starts 199K 198K
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 350K 351K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3385K 3402K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
14:00 CAD Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Mar 08 16:00 US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes
Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14
Mar 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Mar 13
Mar 09 11:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction
Mar 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14
Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3