Talking Points

  •  Crude Oil, Gold Aiming Higher Amid Broad Advance in Risk Sentiment
  •  Mundane Bernanke Speech May Transform into Catalyst for Price Action

Commodities are on the upswing amid a broad-based advance in risk appetite. Growth-geared crude oil and copper prices are following European shares higher while gold and silver find de-facto support in ebbing haven demand for the US Dollar. The move carries forward the chipper mood established overnight amid reports of German support for ECB efforts to trim periphery borrowing costs. Arguments in favor of further QE from the Fed's Eric Rosengren and John Williams, Presidents of the central bank's Boston and San Francisco branches respectively, were likewise supportive.

S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, pointing to more of the same as North America comes online. A lackluster US economic data calendar is likely to give way to a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The central bank chief is due to speak to teachers groups about personal finance education, meaning the emergence of anything policy-related in his prepared remarks is overwhelmingly unlikely. Newswires suggest Bernanke may take questions from the media however, opening the door for the emergence of a possible catalyst as traders search for drivers on an otherwise quiet day.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $92.20 // +0.80 // +0.88%

Prices broke above resistance at 90.88, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with buyers now aiming to challenge the July 19 high at 93.21. The 90.88level has been recast as support, with a push back below that exposing the 23.6% Fib at 89.45.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1610.50 // +7.02 // +0.44%

Prices are edging higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above rising trend line support set from late June. Near-term resistance lines up in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area. An advance beyond that initially exposes 1671.49. Trend line supports line up at 1587.56 and 1571.28.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.89 // +0.10 // +0.34%

Prices are retesting falling trend line resistance-turned-support at 26.88, a barrier reinforced by the May 16 low at 26.75. A break below the latter boundary exposes 26.05. Near-term resistance is at 27.68, with a break above that targeting 28.44.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.390 // +0.022 // +0.65%

Prices are probing back above a support-turned-resistance cluster in the 3.378-90 area, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and a horizontal pivot level, having broken back above a rising trend line set from the June 4 low. Buyers now aim to challenge 3.435, with a break above that exposing 3.535.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, e-mail Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak