Talking Points

  •  Crude Oil, Copper Follow Shares Lower on Greek-Linked Risk Aversion
  •  Gold and Silver Sold as US Dollar Rides Haven Demand to 2-Month High

Commodity prices are trading broadly lower in European hours as Greece-linked jitters continue to weigh on risk sentiment trends. Growth-sensitive crude oil and copper prices following stocks lower while safe-haven flow buoy the US Dollar, applying de-facto downward pressure on gold and silver.

Lawmakers in Athens once again failed to come to terms on the structure of a ruling coalition at a meeting over the weekend. Markets are becoming increasingly concerned that a lingering impasse will push Athens to fall short of its obligations under the terms of the EU/IMF bailout, paving the way for Greece's ejection from the Eurozone and possibly even the overall EU.This would be an unprecedented development with effectively unpredictable practical implications for financial markets, fueling a broadly defensive tone

S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing sharply lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, arguing for more of the same as North America comes online. The US economic calendar is empty, putting the spotlight on a meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers in Brussels. Traders on the lookout for any clues about a possible way forward beyond the Greek political stalemate.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $96.13 // -0.95 // -0.98%

Prices are testing through support at 95.41, with a confirmed break exposing the December 16 low at 92.51. Near-term resistance lines up at 96.57, the 100% Fibonacci expansion level. A break above this barrier exposes the 76.4% Fib at 98.87.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1579.40 // -14.62 // -0.92%

Prices are testing through support at 1570.22, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level, with a break below that exposing the measured target implied by the Triangle pattern carved out since late March at 1548.21. For the time being, initial resistance is marked by the 50% Fib at 1591.15.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.91 // -0.15 // -0.52%

Prices are testing through support at 28.70 marked by a horizontal barrier as well as the bottom of a falling channel established since early March. A confirmed break on a daily closing basis exposes 27.06 as the next downside objective. Near-term resistance remains at 29.71 for the time being.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.648 // -0.042 // -1.14%

Prices took out rising trend line set from early October and are now testing though the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 3.606. A break below this boundary exposes the 61.8% level at 3.516. The trend line, now at 3.650, has been recast as near-term resistance.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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