CRUDE OIL (futures): Crude Oil broken out through its major resistance at the 81.95 level, its YTD high and resumed its medium term uptrend activated from the 35.50 level in Jan'09 the past week. This break has opened up upside risk towards its weekly 200 ema at 84.63 with a decisive break and hold above there bringing further upside incursion towards its .50 Ret(147.24-35.50 declines) at 90.19. The latter level is one of our medium term upside target while the second resides at the 100.00 level, its big psycho logical level. The latter level if seen could provide a strong resistance on initial test. This view is supported by its weekly stochastics and RSI which are both bullish and trending higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, we expect its invalidated resistance at the 81.95 level to reverse roles and provide support thereby turning the commodity higher again. Further down, support comes in at its Nov 18'09 high at 80.84 where a clean penetration will turn attention to the 72.22 level, its Dec 22'09 with a cut through there turning focus to its LT rising trendline currently at 71.43. On the whole, having triggered the resumption of its medium term uptrend, Crude Oil is now poised to head further higher.

Crude