Commodities ease in European session in synchronization with equities. WTI crude oil pricedrops below 75 after faltering below 76. The market is concerned about today's inventory report which has risks to disappoint. Gold price slides for the first time in 5 days as rally to a 6-week high spurred profit-taking. European bourses open lower as Vestas, the world's biggest wind-turbine maker, downgraded its earnings forecasts.
Robust earnings reports in the US boosted Asian shares with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing +0.5%. However, the strength fails to continue in Europe after Vestas Wind System cut its full-year sales forecast to 6B euro from previous projection of 7B euro. The company also reported its second quarterly loss.
We have a light calendar today. BOE released its minutes for the August meeting, unveiling 8 out of 9 members voted to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset buying program at 200B pound. Andrew Sentance, for a third time, favored a rate hike to tame inflation. According to the minutes, there were arguments in favor of further easing as well as arguments in favor of a small increase in interest rates. Yet, the bottom-line is that the majority expects 'the margin of spare capacity was likely to bear down on inflation' so that tightening is not yet necessary while policymakers preferred to monitor the developments for a longer period of time before deciding on further easing. The pound erased losses and surged after the report as the risks of further easing appeared to have reduced.
Base metals have been strong in spite of mixed macroeconomic outlook. LME copper for 3-monht delivery rallied to 7382, the highest level in a week, yesterday. Despite a pullback today, the technical picture is bullish as price broke above the 50-day MA and major resistance levels. Fundamentally, weakness in USD has sent copper price higher. Meanwhile, decline in stockpile has tightened the market and lifted prices. Copper inventory in LME warehouse slipped for a 4th day to 403 330 metric tons yesterday, the lowest level since November 12, while cancelled warrants continued to climb higher.
Aluminum price is also strong but a backwardation has appeared in the front-end of the forward curve (cash to 3-month). Stockpile rose 70.9K metric tons yesterday as traders taken short positions delivered the metal. There will probably be a significant amount of aluminum to be delivered over the coming few weeks and price may be under pressure.