Crude oil price retreats to 68 in European morning as USD recovers and economic data released in the Eurozone were mixed. Stock markets in Europe also open lower ECB's meeting Thursday as the central bank will also report downwardly revised economic projections while keeping interest rate unchanged.
After falling for 4 consecutive days and reached a 5.5-month low Tuesday, USD rebounds against the euro. Against other major currencies, the greenback also reverses grounds but we believe it's just due to technical rebound and investors' profit-taking on higher-yield investments. In the medium- to long-term, we remain bearish on the dollar as US' fiscal position worsens.
Eurozone's GDP confirmed to have contracted -2.5% qoq in 1Q09 while 4Q08's decline (-1.8%) was less severe than previously estimated. However on annual basis, 1Q09 contraction came in at -4.8%, worse than consensus of -4.6%, following -1.7% a quarter ago. Inflation pressure in the 16-nation region continued to have eased in April, with PPI readings dropped -1% and -4.6% on monthly and yearly basis. Furthermore, services PMI in Germany was revised down to 45.2 in May (preliminary: 46) while that in the Eurozone was revised up slight to 44.8(preliminary: 44.7).
In UK, the FTSE 100 Index drops 2% while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 Index slide by about 1% in morning session. In Asia, stock markets however rallied as boosted by unexpected GDP growth (+0.4% qoq and yoy) in Australia in 1Q09. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.7%.
A series of job and manufacturing data to be released in the US will likely trigger huge volatility in world markets. The market currently anticipates ADP would report -530K decline in employment in May, following -491K drop in the previous month. ISM non-manufacturing is expected to have improved to 45 in May from 43.7 in April while factory orders probably rose +0.5% mom in April after plunging -0.9% in the previous month. Better-than-expected outcomes would provide further signs of economic recovery and should be positive for oil prices.
Both gold and silver prices edged higher but the gains were restrained by USD's fight-back. Gold for August delivery earlier rose to as high as 992.1 while July contract for silver broke above 16 before pulling back.
Copper price trade steadily despite a modest 0.5% decline to 5050 Tuesday. The higher the base metal climbs the more cautious we are about a deep correction. Although come data in China pointed to expansion in manufacturing activities, we concern that the robustness as supported by government's stimulus spending will come to an end soon. In fact, power output dropped by a more-than-expected 3.55% in April, suggesting industrial activities might not be as good as investors believed.