The US Energy Department reported that crude oil inventory increased +1.76 mmb (consensus: +1 mmb) to 337.7 mmb in the week ended November 6. Cushing stocks also rose more than +1 mmb during the week.

Both gasoline and distillate stockpiles also surged, contrasting market expectations of draws. Gasoline inventory soared +2.56 mmb to 210.8 mmb and distillate inventory climbed +0.35 mmb to 167.7 mmb. This was the first increase in distillate inventory after 4 consecutive weeks of declines.

WTI crude oil price plunged to 77.4 ahead of the report. The fall extends further to 76.8 immediately after the release. Others in the energy complex also plummet with heating oil dropping below 2 dollar and RBOB gasoline losing -3.5% to 1.923.

Weekly change in inventory as of 06/11/09 ActualChangeMarket Expectation Previous
Crude oil 337.7 mmb+1.76 mmb+1.00 mmb-3.94 mmb
Gasoline 210.8 mmb+2.56 mmb-0.35 mmb-0.29 mmb
Distillate 167.7 mmb+0.35 mmb-0.70 mmb-0.38 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

     

  API (Nov 6)   EIA (Nov 6 )  
 ActualInventoryPrevious Forecast (using API's inventory level)Inventory
Crude oil+1.22 mmb337.5mmb-3.28 mmb +2.09 mmb338 mmb
Gasoline+1.40 mmb211.5 mmb+0.50 mmb +3.72 mmb212 mmb
Distillate+0.64 mmb168.8 mmb+1.79 mmb +1.62 mmb169 mmb
     

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department (EIA)for its weekly survey. Oil inventories from the API and EIA moved in the same direction for over 70% of the time, using data in the past 4 years.

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA

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