WTI crude oil was taken higher by stocks overnight and manages to stay above 91 level on small API stock build. According to America Petroleum Institute, US crude stocks rose 57k barrels to 337.1m barrels in the week to January 7 versus expectation of 1.1m barrel drawdown Gasoline inventories was up 7.04m barrels to 229m barrels. API and DOE moved together in 75% of time over the past four year and the API data is supportive to market expectation of 0.4m barrels gain in the report from Energy Department to be released later today. Technically, yesterday's rebound suggests that crude oil's consolidation might have finished earlier this week and further strength is in favor to push crude oil through recent high of 92.58.
Elsewhere, gold and silver mange to extend rebound from last week's low. Investors are cautious ahead of Portugal bond auction today and safe haven flow helps lift gold and to a lesser extend silver. Portugal is set to sell around EUR 1.25b of 2014 and 2020 bonds today. There is not much doubt on the demand for the bonds and main question is on yield. Portuguese 10 year bond yield rose to life time high of 7.3% last Friday, above the level where Greece and Ireland seek bailout. But ECB purchases yesterday has sent yield down to settle just below 7%. Markets are deeply worried that results of today's bond auction would push yield higher again and eventually force Portugal to seek a bailout as funding costs become unsustainable.
On the data front, Japan money stock rose 2.3% yoy in December, current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.15T in November, Econ watcher current sentiment rose to 45.1 in December. US trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly to GBP -8.2b in November. Eurozone industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% mom, 5.9% yoy in November. Canada new housing price index is expected to rise 0.1% mom in December. US import price index is expected to rise 1.2% mom in December. Also, Fed will release its Beige Book economic report.
The CRB commodity index is still trading well inside the medium term rising channel from 247.75. Recent retreat might have finished at 322.77 and strong rally yesterday suggests that the up trend is resuming. Break of 335.32 high will confirm the bullish case and target 100% projection of 262.07 to 320.35 from 293.95 at 354.1. Nevertheless, note that the index has been losing upside momentum since last October, as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 322.77 support will start to build up the case for reversal and turn focus to 55 days EMA (now at 314.62) first.