Total crude oil and petroleum products stocks increased +2.68 mmb to 10.98 mmb in the week ended June 18. Crude oil inventory rose +2.02 mmb, compared with consensus of a -0.8 mmb dip, to 365.1 mmb during the week with gains coming mainly from Gulf Coast. Utilization rate surged to 89.4%, the highest level since April 30 2010 (89.59%).

Distillate stockpile added +0.3 mmb to 156.9 mmb. Production increase +0.72% which was partly offset by -36.67% decline in imports. Demand slipped -1.59% to 3.78M bpd. Gasoline stockpile drew -0.76 mmb to 217.6 mmb. Production dropped -1.31% but imports soared +0.72%. Demand declined -1.04%. MasterCard's survey showed a different result which said motor fuel demand increased +0.4% to 9.311M bpd during the week.

Selloff of WTI crude oil accelerated in NY session after new home sales slumped -33% m/m to a record low of 300K in May. April's reading was revised down to 446K from 504K in previous estimate. The front-month contract plummeted to as low as 75.17 shortly after the inventory report came out but then rebounded to 76.17. Currently trading at 76, crude oil's near-term outlook should remain weak.

Weekly change in inventory as of 18/06/10
Actual
Change
Market Expectation
Previous

Crude oil
365.1 mmb
+2.02 mmb
-0.80 mmb
+1.69 mmb

Gasoline
217.6 mmb
-0.76 mmb
-0.10 mmb
-0.64 mmb

Distillate
156.9 mmb
+0.30 mmb
+1.30 mmb
+1.80 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

     

 
 
API (Jun 18)
 
 
EIA (Jun 18 )
 

 
Actual
Inventory
Previous
 
Forecast (using API's inventory level)
Inventory

Crude oil
+3.69 mmb
362.5 mmb
+0.58 mmb
 
-0.61 mmb
363 mmb

Gasoline
+0.81 mmb
221.1 mmb
+1.30 mmb
 
+2.66 mmb
221 mmb

Distillate
+1.10 mmb
154.7 mmb
+2.10 mmb
 
-1.62 mmb
155 mmb

     

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, 76% of the time, using data in the past 4 years.

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA