Economic Events: (GMT)
- This Week in PetroleumRelease Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Gasoline and Diesel Fuel UpdateRelease Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
- Weekly Petroleum Status ReportRelease Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
- Heating Oil & Propane Update (October-March) Heating Oil, Propane Residential and Wholesale Price DataRelease Schedule: Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. EST
- Weekly Coal ProductionRelease Schedule: Thursday by 5:00 p.m. EST
- Weekly NYMEX Coal FuturesRelease Schedule: Monday by 5:00 p.m. EST
- Coal News & MarketsRelease Schedule: Monday by 5:00 p.m. EST
- Natural Gas Weekly UpdateRelease Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage ReportRelease Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
- US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
MPC Meeting Minutes
Existing Home Sales
German Ifo Business Climate Index
Initial Jobless Claims
German GDP (QoQ)
New Home Sales
Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast
Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States' emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention here: Oil spread bets are monthly contracts. This means that: a) You don't pay any rollover charges; the bet will run until the contract ends; b) Now, get this, the spread bet runs out (contract expires) in the middle of the month before the month it says on the tin. So, for example, the Brent Crude August contract runs out (expires) on 14th July. How dumb is that?
West Texas Intermediate is the US equivalent to Brent Crude. Commonly known as US Light Sweet Crude (or any derivation of these words), it is called US Crude on the some platforms.
An alternative, less precise way of trading oil is through the equity market, but in my view this needs a good understanding of the underlying companies. For example, the rise in the oil price isn't necessarily reflected in the major companies' share price. This is partly because the cost and availability of refining impacts on the profit line and partly because, despite all the science, a large part of their business involves the costly process of sticking long poles in the ground and seeing if they come up black.
There are exceptions; smaller companies like Tullow Oil and Dana Petroleum are linked more to exploration than refining. Each new discovery seems to notch up a couple of quid on the share price. And they've got the added attraction that one of the majors might decide it's cheaper to bid for them than to look for new reserves itself.
Effect on the FTSE The Oil & Gas sector accounts for roughly 20% of the FTSE, so whatever happens to the oil majors will have quite an effect on the underlying market.
What to watch when trading trading oil involves keeping an eye on a few different factors to the standard investment stuff. In addition to the run of the mill economic data that will gives clues as to whether the world's factories are burning more or less oil there're a couple of seasonal factors:
First, courtesy of Top Gear, there's the US Driving Season
Now switch over to the weather forecast to see how windy it is. The US Hurricane Season officially runs from 1st June to 30th November, but don't expect the forces of nature to pay too much attention to the dates. Hurricanes tend to hit the Gulf of Mexico, which is filled to the rafters with oilrigs (over 20 rigs went missing due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005).
Notice the seasonal rise in the oil price during the hurricane season.
On a smaller, less destructive scale watch out for particularly cold winters where the heating's turned on full blast and, paradoxically, particularly hot summers in the US, where they prefer turning on the 'aircon' to sitting in the shade.
Next take a look at the world's big oil producers. You won't find oil gushing out of stable and predictable countries like Belgium, Sweden or Switzerland. No, putting aside the comparatively stable USA and Saudi Arabia, God blessed the world's more colorful characters with the power and wealth of massive oil supplies. A short roll call includes Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia, where a few well-chosen words from a president can send you sprinting to the 'trade' button.
And finally the most specific economic data to focus on are the US weekly oil and gas inventory figures, issued by the Energy Information Administration and released every week on Wednesday afternoons. If you trade oil you can't afford to miss these.
Oil Trading Strategies the choice here is between trading your views and using technical analysis keep in mind you'll be up against specialists who might have the inside track on something.
Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil rose this week to its highest in nine months as lingering geopolitical worries kept a fear premium in the markets and traders grew optimistic the Greek saga is closer to an end.Crude f rose 93 cents, or 0.9%, to end at $103.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was oil's highest since May 10. Oil is expected to hold close to this range throughout the week.
US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday
- Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that's what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
- German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
- Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
- Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #'s are not sum of parts
- Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
- NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May '07
- India's wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov '09, leaves open room to cut rates
- Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
- UK announces new round of QE
- Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
- China reduces bank reserves
- ECB deposit facility falls
- Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE
- Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
- Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
- Portugal's unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least '98
- Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
- Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can't help itself with more QE
- Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
- US Jan Retail Sales ex auto's weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
- CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept '08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.
Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast
Interest Rate Decision
BoJ Press Conference
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
BOE Inflation Letter
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales (MoM)
German GDP (QoQ)
Claimant Count Change
BoE Inflation Report
BoE Gov King Speaks
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Initial Jobless Claims
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Retail Sales (MoM)
Core CPI (MoM)
Core CPI (MoM)
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3