Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

  • US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday
  •  

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 
 
 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 
 
 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 
 
 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

New Home Sales 

Crude

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical:

High:     114.57 

Low:      76.84

Rule:

Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States' emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention here: Oil spread bets are monthly contracts. This means that: a) You don't pay any rollover charges; the bet will run until the contract ends; b) Now, get this, the spread bet runs out (contract expires) in the middle of the month before the month it says on the tin. So, for example, the Brent Crude August contract runs out (expires) on 14th July. How dumb is that?

West Texas Intermediate is the US equivalent to Brent Crude. Commonly known as US Light Sweet Crude (or any derivation of these words), it is called US Crude on the some platforms.

An alternative, less precise way of trading oil is through the equity market, but in my view this needs a good understanding of the underlying companies. For example, the rise in the oil price isn't necessarily reflected in the major companies' share price. This is partly because the cost and availability of refining impacts on the profit line and partly because, despite all the science, a large part of their business involves the costly process of sticking long poles in the ground and seeing if they come up black.

There are exceptions; smaller companies like Tullow Oil and Dana Petroleum are linked more to exploration than refining. Each new discovery seems to notch up a couple of quid on the share price. And they've got the added attraction that one of the majors might decide it's cheaper to bid for them than to look for new reserves itself.

Effect on the FTSE The Oil & Gas sector accounts for roughly 20% of the FTSE, so whatever happens to the oil majors will have quite an effect on the underlying market.

What to watch when trading trading oil involves keeping an eye on a few different factors to the standard investment stuff. In addition to the run of the mill economic data that will gives clues as to whether the world's factories are burning more or less oil there're a couple of seasonal factors:

First, courtesy of Top Gear, there's the US Driving Season 

Now switch over to the weather forecast to see how windy it is. The US Hurricane Season officially runs from 1st June to 30th November, but don't expect the forces of nature to pay too much attention to the dates. Hurricanes tend to hit the Gulf of Mexico, which is filled to the rafters with oilrigs (over 20 rigs went missing due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005).

Notice the seasonal rise in the oil price during the hurricane season.

On a smaller, less destructive scale watch out for particularly cold winters where the heating's turned on full blast and, paradoxically, particularly hot summers in the US, where they prefer turning on the 'aircon' to sitting in the shade.

Next take a look at the world's big oil producers. You won't find oil gushing out of stable and predictable countries like Belgium, Sweden or Switzerland. No, putting aside the comparatively stable USA and Saudi Arabia, God blessed the world's more colorful characters with the power and wealth of massive oil supplies. A short roll call includes Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia, where a few well-chosen words from a president can send you sprinting to the 'trade' button.

And finally the most specific economic data to focus on are the US weekly oil and gas inventory figures, issued by the Energy Information Administration and released every week on Wednesday afternoons. If you trade oil you can't afford to miss these.

Oil Trading Strategies the choice here is between trading your views and using technical analysis keep in mind you'll be up against specialists who might have the inside track on something.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil  rose this week  to its highest in nine months as lingering geopolitical worries kept a fear premium in the markets and traders grew optimistic the Greek saga is closer to an end.Crude f  rose 93 cents, or 0.9%, to end at $103.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was oil's highest since May 10. Oil is expected to hold close to this range throughout the week.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that's what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #'s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May '07
  • India's wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov '09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal's unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least '98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can't help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto's weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept '08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 
 

 

 

JPY

 
 
 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

 
 

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 
 
 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 
 
 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 
 

 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
101.570
102.140
103.210
103.780
104.850
105.420
106.490

Fibonacci
102.140
102.767
103.154
103.780
104.407
104.794
105.420

Camarilla
103.829
103.979
104.130
103.780
104.430
104.581
104.731

Woodie's
-
102.265
103.460
103.905
105.100
105.545
-

DeMark's
-
-
105.135
103.923
103.495
-
-