Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

It is a very busy week with economic events combining the end and the beginning of a month.

Please see the daily fundamental forecasts for details on each of these events.     

Below are the only major events of the week.

The G20 Summit is taking place in Mexico this week.

Feb. 27

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Feb. 28

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

CB Consumer Confidence 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

19:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Beige Book 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Feb. 29

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

GDP Price Index (QoQ) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

14:45

 

USD

 
 
 

Chicago PMI 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 01

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Crude

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 27 - March 2, 2012, Forecast

Historical:

High:     114.57 

Low:      76.84

Rule: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States' emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention here: Oil spread bets are monthly contracts. This means that: a) You don't pay any rollover charges; the bet will run until the contract ends; b) Now, get this, the spread bet runs out (contract expires) in the middle of the month before the month it says on the tin. So, for example, the Brent Crude August contract runs out (expires) on 14th July. How dumb is that?

What to watch when trading trading oil involves keeping an eye on a few different factors to the standard investment stuff. In addition to the run of the mill economic data that will gives clues as to whether the world's factories are burning more or less oil there're a couple of seasonal factors:

First, courtesy of Top Gear, there's the US Driving Season 

Now switch over to the weather forecast to see how windy it is. The US Hurricane Season officially runs from 1st June to 30th November, but don't expect the forces of nature to pay too much attention to the dates. Hurricanes tend to hit the Gulf of Mexico, which is filled to the rafters with oilrigs (over 20 rigs went missing due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005).

Notice the seasonal rise in the oil price during the hurricane season.

And finally the most specific economic data to focus on are the US weekly oil and gas inventory figures, issued by the Energy Information Administration and released every week on Wednesday afternoons. If you trade oil you can't afford to miss these.

Oil Trading Strategies The choice here is between trading your views and using technical analysis keep in mind you'll be up against specialists who might have the inside track on something.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil climbed this week to 109.70 on the geopolitical worries between Iran and Israel and the continued mounting tension, along with the Islamic nation stopping oil shipments to France and other EU nations, prior to the embargo effective date. Most countries have already made alternative arrangements, so this rise is only on a supply disruption and should subside quickly. Also strong economic news this week out of China, the US and German, as well as the Greek agreements and a weak USD helped drive up the prices.

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Highlights of major economic events for the week of February 20-24, 2012

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged less than 14.9 million barrels per day during the week ending February 17, 170 thousand barrels per day above the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 85.5 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging nearly 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging just under 4.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 335 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged about 8.8 million barrels per day, 211 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 845 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 122 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 340.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range

The sale of new single-family homes in the U.S. fell slightly in January, but only because sales in December were revised higher. Taken together, sales in those two months were the strongest in a year, a good sign for a market that's been in a deep slump since the 2007-2009 recessions.

Consumer sentiment rose in February to the highest level in a year on strong awareness of improving employment, according to a gauge released Friday by the University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment rose to 75.3 in February from 75 in January, achieving a sixth month of improvement. Consumers' expectations rose to 70.3 from 69.1, while their views on current conditions declined to 83 from 84.2.

In the UK today Q4 2nd Estimate GDP -0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y LONDON (MNI) - Household spending rose for the first time in over a year in the fourth quarter and net exports boosted growth, but these were offset by a large fall in investment spending, figures from National Statistics showed Friday

In France today February consumer confidence up 82; January 81 (unrevised) -Matches expectations; MNI analysts survey median forecast 82 -Buying-propensity up 5 points -Future inflation worries down 2 points -Jobless fears down 1 point

The European Commission sharply reduced its forecasts for growth in the EU and the Eurozone for 2012 while also raising its forecasts for inflation, suggesting that the European economy could struggle with stagflation in 2012 The Commission said the economy in the 27-member EU will not grow at all this year.

In the UK Jan Mortgage Approvals Highest Since Dec 2009 says British Bankers Assn. January mortgage approvals rose to their highest level since December 2009

Germany preliminary December machine output -1.9% y/,y. Also Germany's Business morale up more than expected.

Italian consumer confidence rose to 94.2 from 91.8 in Jan when it had posted a 16-year low. The improvement was the result of better sentiment in the general economic climate.

Fitch downgraded Greece's credit rating.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb Flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 - expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the BOE was expecting a zigzag pattern of the quarterly growth this year and the detailed forecasts underpinning the quarterly Inflation Report, published Wednesday, bear this out.

In the UK Public Borrowing reported the highest surplus since January 2008, and along with revisions to previous data, suggest borrowing is on track to undershoot the latest forecasts

Greek bailout will likely get final approval in the week starting March 12, according to statement on Finnish Finance Ministry website. The final approval for activating the EFSF guarantees and completing the PSI operation are conditional on the Troika and the eurogroup deeming the PSI as successful and Greece to have fulfilled its commitments 

China's VP Xi Jinping, in a speech in Dublin last night, said his country is considering more support for Europe. The official said We are considering more involvement in helping address the European debt issue through EFSF, ESM and other channels adding China supports the European integration process, the euro, by purchasing European bonds.

UK Gross mortgage lending fell 14.1% on the month in January but was up 10.2% on a year ago, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. As the CML figures are not seasonally adjusted it said the monthly fall in January was not unexpected. The 10.2% rise on the year.

In Japan, Department store sales in Japan were hit by record snowfalls in some regions in January, slipping 1.1% on year and giving up a 0.8% rise in December, data released by the Japan Department Stores Association showed on Monday. 

Japan posts the highest trade deficit in history. The Bank of Japan says its January real export index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% m/m to 116.5 (100 for the 2005 base year), posting the second consecutive monthly gain, after +1.1% in December and -2.7% in November. The January reading was the highest since 118.2 in October.  The Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa renewed his pledge to maintain the BOJ's monetary easing while also repeating that the bank's new explicit 1% inflation goal is similar in nature to the Federal Reserve's own 2% price target. 

Feb. 20

 

GBP

 
 
 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

4.1%

 
 
 

-0.8%

 
 

Feb. 21

 

AUD

 
 
 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

NZD

 
 
 

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

 
 
 

2.8%

 
 

 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

 
 

 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

 
 

 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

 
 

Feb. 22

 

AUD

 
 
 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Industrial New Orders (MoM) 

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Existing Home Sales 

4.57M

 

4.67M

 

4.38M

 
 

Feb. 23

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

109.6

 

108.8

 

108.3

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Current Assessment 

117.5

 

116.5

 

116.3

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Business Expectations 

102.3

 

102.0

 

100.9

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

38.1K

 

37.3K

 

36.6K

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-3

 

-13

 

-16

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

354K

 

351K

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3392K

 

3460K

 

3444K

 
 

Feb. 24

 

EUR

 
 
 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-5.6%

 

-0.4% 

 

1.0% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 

75.3

 

72.5 

 

72.5 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

New Home Sales 

321K

 

315K 

 

324K 

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 27-Mar 02 n/a  UK  Mini Tender

Feb 27  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Feb 27  10:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn Feb 2013 Bubill

Feb 27  11:00  Belgium  OLO Auction

Feb 27  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on May 05

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
106.480
107.220
108.460
109.200
110.440
111.180
112.420

Fibonacci
107.220
107.976
108.444
109.200
109.956
110.424
111.180

Camarilla
109.156
109.337
109.519
109.200
109.882
110.063
110.245

Woodie's
-
107.345
108.710
109.325
110.690
111.305
-

DeMark's
-
-
110.810
109.385
108.830
-
-