Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil edged higher to 92.84 but failed to sustain gain and retreated back. At this point, another rise is still in favor as long as 88.40 minor support holds. Break of 92.84 resistance will bring resumption of whole rally from 64.23 towards 100 psychological level. However, break of 88.40 will turn focus back to 85.11. Further break of 85.11 will indicate topping and should bring deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 (2008 high). 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met and there is no sign of reversal yet. Further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 85.11support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart

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