CRUDE OIL: On The Tear, Threatens The 78.21 Level

CRUDE OIL: As indicated in our Tuesday analysis of Crude Oil's preparation to violate the 74.97 level, its YTD high, well that has been achieved and its medium term uptrend triggered. The question now is how far can it go? Based on our Crude Oil long term technical report, its closest resistance stands at the 78.21 level where its .382 Ret (145.79-35.50 declines) is located and which it is now challenging. A decisive clearance of there will set Crude Oil up for a move towards the 70 level, its psycho level and then the 75.00 level. Further out, the 80.00 level, its psycho level will come in as the next upside target with a cut through there pushing the commodity further higher towards the 90.40 level, its .618 Ret. Its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, corrective lower off its current price levels should target the 74.97 level just eroded where a reversal of roles is expected. Other supports are sited at the 72.50/90 levels, its Oct 08'09 high/rising MT trendline and its psycho level at 70.00. Below that level will set the stage for further declines towards its Oct 05'09 low at 68.03 and possibly lower. On the whole, with resumption of its medium term uptrend activated, Crude Oil is poised head further higher with its immediate challenge being the invalidation of the 78.21 level.

/

Crude Oil: Violation Of The 74.97 Level To Trigger MT Uptrend(13-10-09)

Crude Oil: With Crude Oil presently seen on the offensive following its recent declines to as low as 65.03 in late Sept'09, a retarget of its YTD high at 74.97 is now envisaged.  A decisive violation of the latter level will activate its medium term uptrend currently on hold since late Aug'09. Looking at the chart, the significance of the 70/74 levels is very clear having turned back the commodity in Jun'09 and Aug'09 creating a strong barrier. Above that level will put Crude Oil in position to target higher prices towards the 77.87 level where its .382 Ret (145.79-35.50 declines) is located with a clean break of there setting up the commodity for a move  towards the 70 level, its psycho level and then the 75.00 level ahead of the 80.00 level. Its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, corrective lower off its current price levels should target the 72.50 level, its Oct 08'09 high coinciding with its rising MT trendline at first and next its psycho level at 70.00. Below that level will set the stage for further declines towards its Oct 05'09 low at 68.03 and possibly lower. On the whole, with its recent weakness now halted and recovery triggered, Crude Oil is poised to retarget the 74.97 level and resume its medium term uptrend.

Daily Chart: CRUDE OIL

width=400