As one would expect, crude futures reacted negatively to Friday's disappointing U.S. unemployment data. Higher unemployment implies less demand for and consumption of crude. Therefore, crude proceeded to dip below our 1st tier uptrend line on a pop in sell-side activity. However, the futures managed to stabilize along previous November lows, and have since rallied back above our 1st tier uptrend line. Crude is presently trading just beneath our 2nd tier downtrend line and the psychological $80/bbl level. Today's strength in crude comes from a selloff in the Greenback in reaction to the G20 stating that they will keep their respective stimulus packages in place until the global economic recovery solidifies. Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have responded positively, making crude a more attractive import since it is a dollar-denominated commodity. The S&P futures have also responded favorably since the G20 statement all but confirms that the Fed will need to keep its benchmark rate at its low for quite some time. The positive reaction of the S&P futures is further buoying crude, allowing the commodity to avert a retracement towards its psychological $75/bbl level. However, despite today's positive developments in crude's correlations, gains are being capped by news that China will raise gasoline prices again to boost the revenue of state refiners. This decision implies a decline in China's consumption of crude, thereby weighing down on the price.
Technically speaking, crude has our 1st tier uptrend line serving as a technical cushion once again along with 11/06 lows and the psychological $75/bbl level. As for the topside, crude still faces our 2nd tier downtrend line along with the psychological $80/bbl level and previous 2009 highs. Meanwhile, crude's movement should follow the path of the Dollar for the most part until the wave of Chinese econ data late Tuesday EST.
Resistances: $79.53/bbl, $80.02/bbl, $80.43/bbl, $81.08/bbl, $81.61/bbl
Supports: $78.47/bbl,$78.02/bbl, $77.62/bbl, $77.07/bbl, $76.63/bbl
Psychological: $75/bbl, $80/bbl