Currency Tech

EURUSD R 2: 1.2650 R 1: 1.2450 CURRENT: 1.2295 S 1: 1.2125 S 2: 1.2000

USDJPY R 2: 93.70 R 1: 92.80 CURRENT: 89.94 S 1: 89.00 S 2: 88.00

GBPUSD R 2: 1.4725 R 1: 1.4550 CURRENT: 1.4351 S 1: 1.4110 S 2: 1.3830

AUDUSD R 2: 0.8575 R 1: 0.8380 CURRENT: 0.8177 S 1: 0.8130 S 2: 0.8040

Market Brief

The USDJPY traded at 90.01 as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shares dropped 1.7% boosting demand for JPY as a refuge. Increasing concerns about a slowdown in economic growth weigh on stocks and when stocks fall, investors rush to sell cross currencies against the JPY as a knee-jerk reaction. The USDKRW rose 3.2% to 1,264.35 after North Korea ordered military bodies to prepare for battles and US and South Korea will practice anti-submarine maneuvers and interdicting vessels as a result.The AUDUSD fell to 0.8214 and AUDJPY declined 0.8% to 74.07 for a second day as investors sold higher-yielding assets on concern Europe's debt crisis will worsen and amid reports of escalating tensions between North and South Korea. The AUD slid after North Korea ordered the country's military to get ready for combat and as iron-ore prices dropped before steelmakers in China and South Korea meet today in Beijing to discuss raw material prices. NZDUSD was at 0.6684 and NZDJPY weakened to 60.26 as Fonterra forecast its milk price payout will rise 8.2% in 2011.

The EURJPY fell 0.5% to 111.12 while EURUSD dropped to 1.2315 for a second day as signs the EU's debt crisis is spreading revived concern the recovery will slow. The EUR dropped against 13 of its 16 major counterparts as the IMF urged Spain to do more to overhaul its ailing banks, adding to speculation financial institutions in the area face more losses. The IMF backed Spain's plans to rein in its budget deficit with the deepest spending cuts in three decades. IMF said that the banking industry remains under pressure and the Bank of Spain should be prepared to intervene promptly if pockets of weakness remain. Four Spanish banks plan to combine to form the nation's fifth-largest financial group with more than 135 billion EUR in assets, as regulators push ailing lenders to merge with stronger partners.

The EURGBP declined 1.1% to 0.8569, the most in almost two weeks; GBPJPY climbed 0.1% to 129.32 and GBPUSD decreased to 1.4378 as the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne outlined budget cuts to shrink the largest government budget deficit among G7 nations. GBPJPY also climbed after Osborne announced 6.25 billion GBP of spending cuts yesterday and poised to set out broader plans in an emergency budget on June 22.

Further housing price data is expected with the S&P/Case Shiller index which is expected to rise 2.5% (MoM) (prev. 0.6%) and the latest consumer confidence reading at 58.5 (prev. 57.9). The relatively better recovery prospects for the US should continue to support the USD and we expect Fed policy moves later in the year to bolster the USD as well. Preliminary UK Q1 GDP will likely edge higher to 0.3% (QoQ) and should help shift some of the attention back to the fundamentals after the new government announced the first spending cuts to the new budget.