Euro higher but confined to inside day price action. Dollar/Yen well supported on dips; eyes break above 99.00. Cable in search of lower top ahead of next drop. Dollar/Swiss price action warns of pullback into Wednesday. Dollar/Cad reverses sharply in whipsaw session after poking above 1.2500. Australian Dollar very well bid but still inside day. New Zealand Dollar recovery not expected to last.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - Showing an inside day and is in the process of consolidating the latest drop and deeper setbacks are favored once daily studies unwind from oversold readings as evidenced by the daily stochastics. Any rallies are now seen well capped by previous support turned resistance in the 1.3090 area and we look for a retest of initial support by the 1.2835 16Mar lows over the coming sessions. Below 1.2835 opens an even deeper pullback exposing 1.2330-1.2455. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3125

R3

34/16 low

1.3075

R2

4/20 high

1.3020

R1

4/17 low

Level

Support

Details

1.2890

S1

4/21 low

1.2835

S2

3/16 low

1.2800

S3

Figure

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Any setbacks are seen limited with the overall structure still favoring additional upside back towards the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00 over the coming days. There is some decent internal range support in the 98.00 area and only a close below will shift our short-term outlook. Back above 99.45 is however required to accelerate gains and signal a resumption of the up-move. Below 97.65 concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.75

R3

4/17 high

99.45

R2

4/20 high

99.00

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

97.65

S1

4/20 low

97.35

S2

50-Day SMA

96.90

S3

3/24 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Has been sold heavily since topping out just over 1.5000 last week with the declines accelerating back below the 100-Day SMA to 1.4470 thus far ahead of the latest minor bounce. Despite the current rebound, the pair has still managed to put in a fresh daily lower high and lower low and we look for a fresh drop back below 1.4470 over the coming session to expose a direct test of the 50-Day SMA by 1.4400. Below 1.4400 the opens 1.4110 further down. Only back above 1.4820 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4900

R3

Figure

1.4820

R2

4/20 high

1.4755

R1

4/17 low

Level

Support

Details

1.4470

S1

4/21 low

1.4400

S2

50-Day SMA

1.4275

S3

4/1 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Tuesday's break back below Monday's 1.1640 lows ends a string of 5 consecutive higher lows and warns of additional pullbacks into Wednesday. However, the overall structure remains constructive and any dips towards the 1.1500 handle should be well supported. Next key topside resistance comes in by 1.1835 which guards against the 1.1970 yearly highs. We will look for opportunities to buy on dips into Wednesday. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1900

R3

Figure

1.1835

R2

3/18 high

1.1740

R1

4/20 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1600

S1

Figure

1.1550

S2

50-Day SMA

1.1500

S3

Psychological

USD/CAD

USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by psychological support at 1.2000. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.1980 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar over the coming weeks. Any weakness should now be well supported ahead of 1.2120 with next key topside resistance coming in at 1.2505. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2615

R3

4/2 high

1.2575

R2

4/1 low

1.2505

R1

4/9 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2300

S1

4/13 high

1.2245

S2

4/14 high

1.2190

S3

4/15 high

AUD/USD

AUD/USD - Sharp pullbacks on Monday have shifted the outlook with the latest break back below 0.7035 ending prospects for a fresh higher low and opening the door for a potential resumption of the broader downtrend. Next key support comes in by 0.6770 and we look for a test of this level over the coming sessions. Only back above 0.7255 will take the pressure off of the downside, and as such, rallies ahead of 0.7255 should be used us sell opportunities. Tuesday's bullish price action does not discourage with the market still confined to an inside day. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7330

R3

4/13 high

0.7255

R2

4/20 high

0.7140

R1

4/16 low

Level

Support

Details

0.6955

S1

4/20 low

0.6905

S2

3/25 low

0.6840

S3

Lower Bollinger

NZD/USD

NZD/USD - The decline from the early April 0.5985 highs has accelerated with the market taking out key support by 0.5530 to 0.5485 ahead of the latest minor bounce. Tuesday's bullish price action is classed as corrective with the inside day merely suggestive of consolidation ahead of the next drop. Look for rallies to be well capped ahead of 0.5710 with a fresh daily lower high sought out ahead of the next push back below the 100-Day SMA at 0.5465. Only back above 0.5710 concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5825

R3

4/16 high

0.5755

R2

4/17 high

0.5710

R1

4/20 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5485

S1

4/20 low

0.5410

S2

50-Day SMA

0.5345

S3

3/16 high

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)

Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)

Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)