After a quiet start for today's session, where currencies were trading within a tight range in anticipation for the king of report; the main event-risk for today in the form of the employment report; the NFP came to break the silence as it screamed a 243,000 new jobs were surprisingly added to the economy, the numbers came way off market consensus of 150k. The unemployment rate slipped to 8.3% from 8.5 in December, while economist expected a steady rate at 8.5%. These positive numbers were mainly supported by job growth in the service sector as it added around 162k jobs.
The EUR/USD pair initial reaction was to the upside; however it quickly reversed and fell sharply; at the moment trading around 1.3110, while the positive news may be good for risk-appetite, at the current global market condition it may have an adverse effect on higher yielding currencies specially the vulnerable ones such as the euro, and we may see dollar strength as there are proofs that the U.S. economy is outperforming its counterparts. Anyhow, sharp market volatility is expected, and we recommend being cautious as we are approaching the weekend.
The dollar index is currently up 13 points, after opening the session at 78.97 it printed a low at 78.74 before rebounding again. The index failed to breach and rebounded from key technical level at 78.80.
The USD/CAD rebounded this morning after the gloomy employment conditions in Canada, as the Canadian economy added only 2.3k jobs in January while expectations were that the economy could add 6k jobs from December's reading of 17.5k, summing to 23.5k, Unemployment rate also ticked higher to 7.6% from 7.5% last month. However, the pair pared gains after the NFP release and currently trading at 0.9977 after printing a high at the resistance of the short term descending channel at 1.0032. Price is currently down few pips from the opening price at 0.9991.
Main support level to watch is the 200-days SMA which is few pips away from current price, currently at 0.9960. The pair has formed a short term bullish falling wedge formation suggesting we may see a rebound, but steady trading below the aforementioned average will negate it. Trading back above 1.0020 shall indicate further recovery towards 1.0075
The GBP/USD fell sharply; although it started the European session with a push from the unexpected boost in the service sector as the PMI printed 56.0; up from 54.0 last month and above the consensus of 53.5. The pair recorded a high after this news at 1.5860, before bears jumped in again to push the pair lower currently trading near the daily low at 1.5764. The pair is currently testing a major support at 1.5750 areas, a breach below this area could lead to further weakness in the coming period, where initial supports below 1.5750 reside at 1.5505 followed by 1.5650. Intraday resistance levels start at 1.5785 and 1.5850.
Important events to watch for on the calendar today are the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which is expected to show a slight incline from 52.6 in December to 53.1 in January, followed by Factory orders ; expectations point toward a decline to 1.5% from 1.8% in the previous month. Both reports are to be released at 15:00GMT.