Overall: The dollar continued to lose ground during the overnight session as global equity markets and S&P futures advanced. The major pairs, especially the euro and swissy had a very strong Asian session, moving nearly 120 pips. The move continued heading into N.Y. but after Wall Street opened, the major's advance against the greenback stalled and the dollar recovered, especially after the equity rally stalled after 12:00 EDT.
There was no economic news released from the U.S. on Tuesday.
The Euro (Eur/Usd) had a very strong overnight session and led the gains versus the dollar. The pair rallied 130 pips, with most of the gains during the Asian session. However, the euro found strong resistance in the European session in the form of the 20-day simple moving average and the high of the last two days of trading. From there, the euro continued its advance until just after Wall Street opened, and the pair declined 140 pips after 09:30 EDT.
The German CPI rose by 0.6% in February, in-line with the preliminary release. Last month, in January, the German CPI fell 0.5%, and was up 0.9% from one year earlier. The German trade balance surplus fell to 8.3B in January, the lowest level reached since 2002. The previous number, for the month of December, was revised to 11.0B. From one year earlier, the trade balance narrowed, and German exports are now hovering near the lowest level seen in the last few years.
The Pound (Gbp/Usd) traded in an 80-pip range during the overnight session, similar to the one seen in the last U.S. session. The pound never found the momentum the euro and aussie had, and lost about 150 pips after 09:30 EDT. Yesterday, the pound plunged 350 pips.
In the United Kingdom, house prices again took a fall according to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. The report has shown that 78.3 percent of surveyors reported a decline rather than a rise in house price in February. Housing sales in the U.K. have dropped to their lowest level since at least 1978. Retail sales in the United Kingdom declined 1.8 percent, from February of 2008. Sales in the U.K. have fallen back after January’s clearance driven improvement. Food sales have shown slower growth while non-food sales fell further below the year earlier low
The U.K. manufacturing output decreased in January by 2.9%, compared with analyst expectations of -1.5%. From one year ago, manufacturing production fell by 12.8%, and sits at a multi-year year low. A different report showed that industrial production dropped by 2.6%, more than the forecasted number. Mining and quarrying output decreased by 3.0%.
The Aussie (Aud/Usd) rose 90-pips in the overnight session and pared the declines seen in the last day of trading. As with the euro, the pair advanced strongly heading into the Wall Street open but its advance continued in the first two hours of trading. Aussie had the smallest decline against the dollar, losing about 50 pips after 11:30 EDT.
The National Australia Bank released the business confidence report this evening. Business confidence in Australia has fallen to -22. This level was last seen in June of 1992 as this level follows the worst reading in the surveys 20 year history. The National Australia Bank is expecting the Reserve Bank to cut the interest rate to 2.00 percent by the end of 2009 in order to boost confidence in the business sector.
The Cad (Usd/Cad) fell 100 pips overnight after reaching a multi-year high yesterday. The cad moved lower, reflecting the dollar’s weakness that started during the Asian session. The pair rose during trading in N.Y. even after crude declined about 3% on the day.
The Swissy (Usd/Chf) plunged 120 pips in the Asian session, but ahead of the London open the swissy started to retrace some parts of the declines. During its descent, the swissy broke below the 100-day simple moving average, and the low of the previous day of trading. The pair declined until about 08:30 EDT and rose steadily throughout the N.Y. session as stocks maintained their early advance.
The Yen (Usd/Yen) traded flat in the Asian session, but moved somewhat lower in the early part of the European trading hours. The yen declined for the first time in the last two days overnight, as the dollar is losing ground across the board. Additionally, the yen has almost pared all of the gains from the last day of trading. The pair found its footing starting at about 08:30 EDT and like the swissy, advanced steadily during N.Y. trading.