Overall: The Asian session moved very slowly, with most of the majors coming to a stand-still during the late Asian trading hours. However, the London open brought expected momentum. At the same time, the U.S. futures started to move lower, sending the currency market into risk-aversion mode which continued into N.Y. as traders grew concerned after the weekly report on unemployment claims, which saw the number of workers continuing to claim benefits rise to the most since October 1982. News that retail sales grew 1.0% didn't inspire confidence.
The Euro (Eur/Usd) appeared as if it wanted to break higher during the Asian session, but soon after the European traders joined the market, the euro saw some strong selling orders. The pair fell to 1.2850 level, the support of the last three days of trading, and briefly broke below it. The pair continued lower in N.Y. as traders grew risk-averse, sending the euro to its lowest level since Feb. 02 on 1.2722.
Industrial production fell in December by 2.6%, more than the market had expected. Compared with one year ago, industrial production is down by 12.0%, from -7.7% in November, reaching 2004 levels. On a monthly basis, industrial production is down in all of the fifteen euro-area countries in December. Compared with one year ago, industrial production took a strong hit both in the Euro-area and in the Euro-zone
The Pound (Gbp/Usd) moved in a very tight range during the Asian session, but sank like a stone during the London open. The pair fell 150 pips tonight, totaling 650 pips in the last three days of trading. The pair declined in N.Y. as stock markets fell, heading all the way towards the 61.8% retrace level of the previous up side move.
The Aussie (Aud/Usd) fell to the 0.6500 support level in the European session. The pair advanced up to TheLFB R1 (0.6600) in the early Asian session, but started to move lower soon after. After the London open, the pair plunged lower, shedding 90 pips in a short time span. The outlook turned bearish for the aussie after the Australian senate rejected the stimulus plan and the pair headed lower in N.Y. as stocks declined, surpassing the 61.8% retrace line of it last strong move to the upside.
The National Australia Bank released the business confidence report this evening. Business confidence in Australia has plummeted to all time lows as companies continue to cut back spending as a result of the slowing global economy. The unemployment rate in Australia increased by 0.1 percent to 4.8 percent in January which is slightly higher than analysts’ forecasts of an increase to 4.7 percent.
The Cad (Usd/Cad) moved on a very weak momentum, again, in the overnight session. The pair traded between the neutral pivot point (1.2440) and the Asian opening price, unable to trade decisively in either direction. For a few weeks now, the cad has struggled to break above the 1.2500 area but the level was surpassed in N.Y as oil declined a massive 5.45% on the day, sending the cad to its highest close since Jan. 22.
The Swissy (Usd/Chf) traded alongside the neutral pivot point (1.1580), during the Asian session, but surged higher during the European trading hours. Soon after the London open, the swissy tested the 1.1625 resistance area, where it has peaked in the last few sessions. The pair ended up little changed during the N.Y. session but was higher on the day. The swissy is in the process of forming a rising triangle on the daily chart and lately seems to have found strong daily support in the 1.1500 area.
The Swiss Consumer Climate practically shows the same as every other release from around the world: consumers are getting more and more pessimistic. This certainly has a negative effect on consumption, dragging the Swiss GDP number lower, as the economy faces a recession.
The Yen (Usd/Yen) headed lower both in the European and in the Asian sessions, but the moves were restrained, falling only 50 pips. During the European session, the yen tested TheLFB S1 (89.80), and the 20-day moving average, moving in-line with the S&P futures. Curiously, the pair was mostly higher in N.Y. although it did look to finish a bit below the high of the day. Daily resistance is now seen at 90.75 and a move through there could send the pair up for a test of the 50 day moving average.
Domestic corporate goods prices came in lower than expected for the first time in more than five years with a reading of -0.2 percent. This is the first decline seen since December of 2003. The chief cause of this was falling commodity prices coupled with the fact that economists are predicting the worst recession in almost 50 years which may bring back deflation which plagued the country for almost 10 years.