Overall, the majors traded in a tight range during the European session, again. However, unlike in the last few days, the dollar seems to have broken its close link with the S&P futures, which advanced overnight. The market is likely to retain strong momentum during the U.S. session, as the economic calendar has important releases.
The Euro (Eur/Usd) traded in a very small range during the Asian and the European trading hours, approximately 40 pips. This comes after the euro was unable to develop a decent trend during Wednesday’s European session, but was rather more active during U.S. trading.
The Euro zone M3 number hit the wires at 5.9% higher than what analysts had previously estimated. The number for the month of January was revised to 6.0%, slightly higher. The Euro area M3 was expanding at a very strong pace in the last few quarters, but it seems now the pace of growth is starting to slow. The consumer climate in Germany for the month of April 2009 fell unexpectedly. In the same time, the previous read, for March, was revised slightly lower, to 2.5.
The Pound (Gbp/Usd) rose strongly during the Asian session, but since then the pair traded very volatile in a rather close range. During most of the European session, the pound’s channel was about 50-pips, but the Retail Sales release made the pair break to the downside. Additionally, the pound traded just below the 100-day simple moving average in the overnight session.
Retail sales in U.K. fell in February, following two months of unexpected increases, while the annual growth rate fell to 0.4% - the lowest since September 1995. Between January and February, total sales volume fell by 1.9%. This time, however, the declines were widespread over every sector.
The Aussie (Aud/Usd) traded in a 40-pip range during the overnight session, delimited by the neutral pivot point (0.6975) and the 0.7020 area, where the pair also found resistance area in the last U.S. session. The aussie has a clear calendar for the rest of the week, however, the pair might be affected by the New Zeeland’s GDP scheduled for tonight.
The leading index for Australia has decreased 0.6 percent for the month, falling to a reading of 111.2. This is the fifth consecutive decrease for the index. Contributing to the declines seen were building approvals, share prices, and the yield spreads. Retail sales have continued to make a large positive contribution for the index.
The Cad (Usd/Cad) tried to break below the neutral pivot point (1.2290) in the Asian session, but the pair was unable to move lower until the London open. Even so, the cad only held below the support level for a short period. During the European session, the cad was forming new highs for the current day of trading.
The Swissy (Usd/Chf) also struggled to break above the neutral pivot point (1.1235) overnight, but never succeeded. However, the pair continued to move up and down in a tight range, around the 200-day simple moving average. The swissy had the same pattern of trading in the last few days.
The Yen (Usd/Yen) advanced after the Asian session open, but traded sideways until the London open. From there on, the yen rose another 40 pips and tested TheLFB R1 (98.20), but was unable to move higher. During the overnight session, the yen managed to pare the declines seen yesterday.
The corporate services price index fell to -2.6 percent for the month as commodity prices tumbled and a deepening recession caused companies to slow spending. Advertising agencies have been especially hard hit as demand wanes. This is the fifth month that the corporate services price index has fallen. Cheaper oil prices have reduced transportation costs which have caused Japan Airlines, and All Nippon Airways, which are two of Japans largest airlines, have plans to lower the cost of the fuel surcharge they charge.