Resistance: 1,3710/ 1,3745-55/ 1,3800/ 1,3850-/ 1,3875/ 1,3910/ 1,3950/ 1,3985
Support : 1,3610-20/ 1,3555-60/ 1,3520/ 1,3480/ 1,3430/ 1,3350/ 1,3300-10
Comment: Euro's bulls dominated for the most part of the day, and the short term uptrend is still valid, while new tops were formed until 1,3800 area.
The market is waiting for the NFP and unemployment rate announcement today, which are expected much worse than the previous month. If the outcome is close to the expected or lower, it may lead to a dollar rise and the trend may be reversed after all these negative announcements in the previous months. Above 600.000 job losses, dollar may be pressured and important resistance levels are likely to be breached.
First important support for euro, is found at 1,3620-30, followed by 1,3520-40. A break of the second would indicate the short term trend reversal, and may lead to 1,3420-30 or even to a retracement to 1,3300 or lower.
We will prefer the upward scenario and a reach of resistance levels at 1,3850-80 or higher. If price remains above 1,3600-20 during reactions and consolidates above 1,3700, our upward expectations will be risen.
A possible move above 1,3880, would have as next target the area of 1,3960-80, while a daily close above this level would indicate that the move is likely to be resumed to higher levels.
High volatility is expected today and we should be cautious regarding our short term positions
We will prefer to stay neutral regarding short term positions as high volatility is expected after the NFP announcement and the direction that the market will follow cannot be predicted. If we had to choose, we would prefer a bullish strategy with long stops (below 1.3500) or below 1.3600 with more risk. Sell orders could be tried close to 1,3900 area, or at a break of important support at 1,3600 and 1,3500…
The above mentioned strategy refers to orders that we may follow for personal accounts, depending on the market analysis and the potential reach of resistance and support levels. We do not encourage buy or sell orders, as its effective use is based on correct risk management and the ability of position readjustment depending on current condition.