Calm Before The Storm, FOMC Today

 (00:30 GMT)

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was well supported by Dollar buybacks ahead of the US Interest Rate announcement today. Most markets were quiet with speculation of further Fed easing helping the stock market to small gains. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 10698, S&P +6 points closing at 1127 and NASDAQ +17 points closing at 2305. Looking ahead, August FOMC meeting forecast to keep rates at 0.25%.

The Euro (EUR) fell back from the 1.3300 level with the market cautious of being caught long ahead of tonight's major risk event. On a positive note, August European Sentix jumped 9.8 points to 8.5 for the best reading since 2007. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3210 and a high of 1.3310 before closing at 1.3230. Looking ahead, July German CPI is forecast at 0.2% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold against the dollar as the heavy Yen buying over the past month was wound back ahead of today's Bank of Japan meeting and US Central bank meeting. The Y85 is still key for the market as is the BOJ economic assessment today. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 85.32 and a high of 86.07 before closing the day around 85.90 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting forecast to hold at 0.1%

The Sterling (GBP) came under the most pressure as the repeated failure at 1.6000 induced a fair sized pull back throughout the day. The recent rally has been over 14 big figures and a pull back for the volatile trading pair is likely. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5880 and a high of 1.5997 before closing the day at 1.5900 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Trade Balance is forecast at -7.8bn vs. -8.06bn.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell back cautiously throughout the day on general USD strength but the outlook remains positive as the stock market looks solid. The AUD/JPY outlook is less certain as the USD/JPY continues with the downtrend. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9149 and a high of 0.9208 before closing the US session at 0.9160.

Oil & Gold (XAU) eased back after failing at $1211 resistance again but support was firm at $1200 and precious metal stabilized at this key level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1198 and high of USD $1210 before ending the New York session at USD$1201 an ounce. Crude bounced a little as Friday's selling was seen as overdone. WTI Oil Closed +$0.78 at $81.48 a barrel.


CurrencySup 2Sup 1SpotRes 1Res 2


Euro - 1.3215

Initial support at 1.3119 (August 5 low) followed by 1.2981 (July 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3416 (April 27 high) followed by 1.3692 (April 12 high)

Yen - 85.90

Initial support is located at 84.83 (Nov 29 2009 low) followed by 83.50 (Nov 29 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.66 (August 3 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).

Pound - 1.5900

Initial support at 1.5820 (August 5 low) followed by 1.5696 (August 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5999 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1.6069 (Feb 3 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9160

Initial support at 0.9033 (Aug 2 high) followed by the 0.8896 (July 22 high). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9273 (May 4 low) followed by 0.9389 (April 12 high).

Gold - 1201

Initial support at 1157 (July 5 low) followed by 1147 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1211 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1218 (July 13 high).

Oil - 81.50

Initial support at 80.0 (Intraday Support) followed by 79.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Resistance).