S&P 500 at fresh 15 month Highs


U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong in Asia on fears that China may start to tighten momentary policy soon as inflation picks up. US data was positive with January's Trade balance falling to -37bn vs. -41bn forecast. Weekly Jobless claims were 462k roughly as expected. In US stocks, DJIA +44 points closing at 10611, S&P +4 points closing at 1150 and NASDAQ +18 points closing at 2368. Looking ahead, February Retail Sales are forecast at -0.2% vs. +0.5% previously. Also released, March UoM Consumer Confidence is forecast at 73.6.

The Euro (EUR) continued to track higher as Greece fears subsided and EUR/JPY dragged the major higher. The Swiss National Bank held rates at 0.25% and continued to state that EUR/CHF intervention was necessary but the reaction from the market was muted with EUR/CHF edging only slightly higher. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3618 and a high of 1.3689 before closing at 1.3680. Looking ahead, January Industrial Production forecast at 0.7% vs. -1.7% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weak as the market speculates further BOJ easing is on the way after the Government repeatedly expressed its wish for more action. USD/JPY tested the 90.80 region but failed to gain further traction. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.19 and a high of 90.77 before closing the day around 90.60 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke back above the 1.5000 level as sentiment improved on global stock market gains. GBP/JPY rallied above the Y136 level and EUR/GBP fell below 0.9100. Heavy selling of the Pound in recent weeks makes the possibility of a relief rally with the Euro significant. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4945 and a high of 1.5090 before closing the day at 1.5080 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) February's Employment Change was weaker than expected at +0.5K vs. +15k forecast and 52k previously. Concerns over china also weighed in the Asian session but these were trumped by the positive investment sentiment throughout the European and US sessions. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9109 and a high of 0.9172 before closing the US session at 0.9160.

Oil & Gold (XAU) the $1100 level was tested in the US session before bouncing back to opening levels. Overall trading with a low of USD$1100 and high of USD$1112 before ending the New York session at USD$1109 an ounce. Crude Oil broke above the Key $82 resistance as the rally continued. Crude Oil was up $0.30 ending the New York session at $82.20.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3436

1.3531

1.3680

1.3705

1.3788

USD/JPY

88.14

89.68

90.65

90.82

91.29

GBP/USD

1.4784

1.4855

1.5070

1.5196

1.5317

AUD/USD

0.8979

0.9056

0.9160

0.9211

0.9243

XAU/USD

1088.00

1104

1109.00

1128

1144.00

OIL/USD

78.00

80

82.20

82.50

85.00

Euro - 1.3680

Initial support at 1.3531 (Mar 5 low) followed by 1.3436 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3705 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen - 90.65

Initial support is located at 89.68 (Mar 9 low) followed by 88.14 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.82 (Mar 10 high) followed by 91.29 (Feb 23 high).

Pound - 1.5070

Initial support at 1.4855 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.4784 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5196 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar - 0.9160

Initial support at 0.9056 (Mar 9 low) followed by the 0.8979 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9211 (Jan 20 high) followed by 0.9243 (Jan 20 high).

Gold - 1109

Initial support at 1104 (Feb 26 low) followed by 1088 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1128 (Mar 10 high) followed by 1144 (Mar 3 high).

Oil - 82.20

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Resistance).