Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) some surprisingly weak US manufacturing data sent US stock markets and the USD down overnight. The Empire State survey dropped to 5.1 vs. 18 forecast. Strong Company Earning offset some of the losses as did the news of BP closing the oil leak and Goldman Sachs settling with the SEC. In US stocks, DJIA -7 points closing at 10359, S&P +1 points closing at 1096 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2248. Looking ahead, June CPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.1% previously. Also released, UoM Consumer Confidence forecast at 68.4 vs. 69.8 previously.

The Euro (EUR) broke higher as the US data added to the argument the US economy is slowing and confidence about the Eurozone surviving the debt crisis grows. Resistance at 1.28 and then 1.29 was broken and the pair finished on a solid footing in striking distance of the 1.3000 bull target. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2707 and a high of 1.2956 before closing at 1.2930.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was stronger against the dollar and most pairs as the recent weakness was hit from a change in sentiment in the US session. Support at Y87 is eyed and if broken could indicate the Y85 is on the cards where once again. This was the previous level where Japanese government comments helped the pair find support. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.22 and a high of 88.43 before closing the day around 87.40 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro higher able to ignore the drop in risk appetite as the market continued to push the Pound recovery higher. Resistance above 1.5300 was weak and the pair quickly traded up to resistance at 1.5480. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5234 and a high of 1.5474 before closing the day at 1.5440 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to maintain strength as the stock market fell in the US but finished well off highs on the combination of the Goldman Sachs/BP news late in the day. AUD/JPY was the main cross pulling the pair down as the USD/JPY lost support. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8726 and a high of 0.8851 before closing the US session at 0.8830.

Oil & Gold (XAU) range trading continued with no catalyst to break out of the 1200-1220 range. Overall trading with a low of USD$1203 and high of USD$1217 before ending the New York session at USD$1211 an ounce. Crude Oil lost ground on US recovery concerns. WTI Oil Closed -$0.42 at $76.62 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2480

1.2709

1.2910

1.3094

1.3416

USD/JPY

85.87

86.97

87.25

88.50

89.16

GBP/USD

1.4857

1.5172

1.5425

1.5472

1.5524

AUD/USD

0.8450

0.8622

0.8780

0.8871

0.9000

XAU/USD

1166.00

1185

1209

1218

1244.00

OIL/USD

74.5

75.00

76.70

78.00

80.00

Euro - 1.2910

Initial support at 1.2790 (July 15 low) followed by 1.2480 (July 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3094 (May 10 high) followed by 1.3416 (April 27 high)

Yen - 87.25

Initial support is located at 86.97 (July 1 low) followed by 85.87 (Nov 30 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 88.50 (July 15 high) followed by 89.16 (July 12 high).

Pound - 1.5425

Initial support at 1.5172 (July 14 low) followed by 1.4857 (Jun 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5472 (July 15 high) followed by 1.5525 (April 15 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8780

Initial support at 0.8622 (July 8 high) followed by the 0.8450 (June 7 high). Initial resistance is now at 0. 8871 (July 14 high) followed by 0.9000 (Big Level).

Gold - 1211

Initial support at 1185 (July 7 low) followed by 1166 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1218 (July 13 high) followed by 1244 (July 1 high).

Oil - 76.70

Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 74.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).