USD Breaks Higher


U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) heavy gains against most majors were seen throughout the day with little retracement as US Bond Yields crept higher and the Euro buckled. February Durable Goods Orders were at 0.5% vs. 0.7% forecast. February New Home Sales at 308k vs. 300k previously. In US stocks, DJIA -52 points closing at 10836, S&P -6 points closing at 1167 and NASDAQ -16 points closing at 2398. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 450k vs. 457k previously.

The Euro (EUR) was under pressure all day as markets pushed the Greece issue to the brink before today's EU summit. Stops were hit under 1.3440 and then 1.3400 and the single currency was pressuring the 1.3300 level as the US session came to a close. German March IFO beat expectations at 98.1 vs. 95.8 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3304 and a high of 1.3488 before closing at 1.3325. Looking ahead, EU Summit Begins.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) finally broke out of the 90-91 range with an explosive move to the topside. USD/JPY led all the crosses higher as the Yen was the weakest currency in the market. The US session saw moves above Y92 and the pair settled comfortably above the figure. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.37 and a high of 92.42 before closing the day around 92.20 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) fell to the USD strength but held up well against the Euro and Yen. The UK budget did little to stop the GBP selling with Fitch commenting that it did not change it's view of the UK public debt situation. GBP/JPY rose above Y137 on heavy Yen selling. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4854 and a high of 1.5039 before closing the day at 1.4880 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Retail Sales forecast at 0.7%m/m vs. -1.8%m/m.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked gold and the Euro lower falling through the 0.9100 level to 0.9080 supports. AUD/JPY made small gains towards Y84 on the USD/JPY move but with stock markets weak in the US how Japan reacts will be hard to predict. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9064 and a high of 0.9189 before closing the US session at 0.9090. Looking ahead, RBA Financial Stability Review.

Oil & Gold (XAU) pushed through $1100 and $1090 supports on USD strength. Overall trading with a low of USD$1105 and high of USD$1084 before ending the New York session at USD$1086 an ounce. Oil fell with the rest of the market but held above the key $80 a barrel level. Crude Oil was down -$1.31 ending the New York session at $80.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3192

1.3247

1.3320

1.3507

1.3569

USD/JPY

90.06

90.35

92.30

92.44

93.77

GBP/USD

1.4704

1.4784

1.4875

1.5113

1.5257

AUD/USD

0.8979

0.9056

0.9075

0.9199

0.9252

XAU/USD

1071.00

1078

1085.00

1108

1124.00

OIL/USD

78.00

80

80.30

82

83.20

Euro - 1.3320

Initial support at 1.3247 (May 6 low) followed by 1.3192 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3507 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.3569 (Mar 23 high)

Yen - 92.30

Initial support is located at 90.35 (Mar 24 low) followed by 90.06 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.44 (0.764 of 93.77-88.14) followed by 93.77 (Jan 8 high).

Pound - 1.4875

Initial support at 1.4784 (Mar 10 low) followed by 1.4704 (April 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5113 (Mar 23 high) followed by 1.5257 (Mar 19 low).

Australian Dollar - 0.9075

Initial support at 0.9056 (Mar 9 low) followed by the 0.8979 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9199 (Mar 23 high) followed by 0.9252 (March 17 high).

Gold - 1085

Initial support at 1078 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1071 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1108 (Mar 22 high) followed by 1124 (0.618 of 1144.98-1092.47).

Oil - 80.30

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 83.20 (March high).