All Eyes on the EURO


U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) ended the day with further gains but first came under pressure during the European session on news that the EU had come to an agreement on a EU/IMF bailout of Greece if necessary. Weekly Jobless Claims were are at 442k vs. 456k previously. In US stocks, DJIA +5 points closing at 10841, S&P -2 points closing at 1162 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2397. Looking ahead, March UoM forecast at 73 vs. 73.6 previously.

The Euro (EUR) broke 1.3300 in late Asian trade as the market pushed the EU leaders for a Greece resolution. An EU agreement on an IMF/EU bailout plan was announced in the US session and day highs at 1.3380 were seen. Reported comment's from ECB President Trichet that an IMF resolution was 'very, very bad' sent the single currency to fresh 2010 lows. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3266 and a high of 1.3388 before closing at 1.3280. Looking ahead, Day 2 of the EU summit.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued with the technical break higher surging towards Y93. The catalyst was the better than expected weekly jobless claims which dropped 14k. EUR/JPY made new highs as well but came off later in the US session as stock markets fell. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.75 and a high of 92.98 before closing the day around 92.54 in the New York session. UPDATE February Core CPI at -1.2% y/y.

The Sterling (GBP) tested 1.5000 after better than expected February Retail Sales which jumped +2.1%. The gains were short-lived however as January's figures were revised from -1.8% to -3.0% and trumped the positive feeling. More losses were seen later as the Euro slumped and Equities fell heavily in the last hour of trade. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4796 and a high of 1.5008 before closing the day at 1.4840 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained in Asia as RBA's Lowe commented that further rates hikes were coming and that Australia cannot wait for the rest of the world. AUD/JPY broke above Y84 and touched as high as Y84.60. EUR/AUD hit fresh all time lows at 1.4600 before rebounding on the EU bailout news. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9060 and a high of 0.9143 before closing the US session at 0.9080.

Oil & Gold (XAU) held to a tight range tracking the EUR/USD movements. Overall trading with a low of USD$1185 and high of USD$1096 before ending the New York session at USD$1091 an ounce. Rebounded after finding support at $80 a barrel. Crude Oil was down -$0.15 ending the New York session at $80.45.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3192

1.3247

1.3280

1.3507

1.3569

USD/JPY

90.35

91.09

92.70

92.96

93.77

GBP/USD

1.4704

1.4784

1.4810

1.5049

1.5113

AUD/USD

0.8979

0.9056

0.9080

0.9199

0.9252

XAU/USD

1071.00

1078

1091.00

1108

1124.00

OIL/USD

78.00

80

80.20

82

83.20

Euro - 1.3280

Initial support at 1.3247 (May 6 low) followed by 1.3192 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3507 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.3569 (Mar 23 high)

Yen - 92.70

Initial support is located at 91.09 (Mar 12 low) followed by 90.35 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.96 (Mar 25) followed by 93.77 (Jan 8 high).

Pound - 1.4810

Initial support at 1.4784 (Mar 1 low) followed by 1.4704 (April 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5049 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.5113 (Mar 23 low).

Australian Dollar - 0.9080

Initial support at 0.9056 (Mar 9 low) followed by the 0.8979 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9199 (Mar 23 high) followed by 0.9252 (March 17 high).

Gold - 1091

Initial support at 1078 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1071 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1108 (Mar 22 high) followed by 1124 (0.618 of 1144.98-1092.47).

Oil - 80.20

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 83.20 (March high).