CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 28th July (00:30 GMT)

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) traders were kept on their toes with resistance met on multiple asset classes and some sharp falls in commodities. July CB Consumer Confidence forecast fell 3 points to 50.4 but May House Prices increased 0.5% m/m. In US stocks, DJIA +12 points closing at 10537, S&P - points closing at 1114 and NASDAQ - points closing at 2288. Looking ahead, June Durable Goods are forecast at 1 vs. -0.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the rally continued in Europe but ran out of steam late in the day as Oil losses mounted and stocks failed to extend gains. The EUR/USD closed at the 1.3000 figure with the market trading in a tight range so far this week, EUR/JPY did well but EUR/GBP fell back towards 0.8300. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2951 and a high of 1.3047 before closing at 1.2990. Looking ahead, July German CPI forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was broadly weaker as the market pushed higher on USD/JPY after growing impatient on the downside. Stable markets and an improving technical outlook for the crosses are both encouraging Yen selling. AUD/JPY is sitting close to the Key Y80 level and is a good barometer of risk appetite in the market. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 86.81 and a high of 87.99 before closing the day around 87.75 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) failed above 1.5500 on its first attempt but broke higher later in the day on good EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying. GBP/JPY broke to multi-month highs above Y136 and is targeting Y140 in the short term. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5441 and a high of 1.5602 before closing the day at 1.5580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Governor King Speaks.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was strong, holding above 0.9000 the whole day and testing resistance towards 0.9080 in the US session. AUD/JPY buying was the major catalyst but the market is eagerly awaiting today's CPI figures before pushing higher still. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8998 and a high of 0.9071 before closing the US session at 0.9020. Looking ahead, Q2 CPI forecast at 3.4% vs. 2.9% y/y.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold pulled back as demand subsided given the multiple failures at $1200. Overall trading with a low of USD$1187 and high of USD $1157 before ending the New York session at USD$1164 an ounce. Oil slid towards $77 on the drop in US consumer confidence. WTI Oil Closed -$0.30 at $78.80 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2

EUR/USD
1.2480
1.2709
1.2990
1.3094
1.3416

USD/JPY
85.87
86.27
87.75
88.50
89.16

GBP/USD
1.5125
1.5412
1.5580
1.5816
1.6069

AUD/USD
0.8738
0.8896
0.9020
0.9077
0.9389

XAU/USD
1146.00
1157
1164
1218
1244.00

OIL/USD
75.00
77.00
77.20
78.00
80.00

Euro - 1.2990

Initial support at 1.2709 (July 15 low) followed by 1.2480 (July 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3094 (May 10 high) followed by 1.3416 (April 27 high)

Yen - 87.75

Initial support is located at 86.27 (July 16 low) followed by 85.87 (Nov 30 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 88.50 (July 15 high) followed by 89.16 (July 12 high).

Pound - 1.5580

Initial support at 1.5412 (July 26 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5816 (Feb 17 high) followed by 1.6069 (Feb 3 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9020

Initial support at 0.8896 (July 23 high) followed by the 0.8738 (July 22 high). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9077 (76.4% retrace of 0.9389-0.8067) followed by 0.9389 (April 12 high).

Gold - 1164

Initial support at 1157 (July 5 low) followed by 1157 (May 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1218 (July 13 high) followed by 1244 (July 1 high).

Oil - 77.20

Initial support at 77.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).