EUR/USD Breaks 1.20 on Hungary Concerns

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk aversion spiked again on Friday with weaker than expected Jobs data compounded by renewed European Concerns. May Non Farms increased by 431k vs. 513k forecast and included 411k census jobs. May's Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.7% vs. 9.9% previously. In US stocks, DJIA +323 points closing at 9931, S&P -37 points closing at 1064 and NASDAQ -83 points closing at 2219. Looking ahead, April Consumer Credit is forecast at 0.5bn vs. 2bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) aggressive selling resumed after the French PM stated the fall in the Euro was good for France and Hungary let the market know the previous government falsified data. Adding to this weak US stocks and the market pushed through 1.20 on the major and Y110 on the EUR/JPY. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1958 and a high of 1.2215 before closing at 1.1963. Looking ahead, June Eurozone Sentix forecast at -7bn vs. -6.4bn. Also Released, April German Industrial Orders forecast at 0.2% vs. 5% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) safe haven flows and weak US data reversed the USD/JPY direction which had being enjoying solid gains of the back PM Kan's appointment. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY were very heavy in the US and could extend losses if stock markets continue to fall. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.43 and a high of 92.89 before closing the day around 91.59 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro lower falling below 1.4500 support on heavy GBP/JPY selling. UK House Prices dropped -0.4% in May according to Halifax. EUR/GBP continued to slump below 0.8300 to test 0.8250. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4456 and a high of 1.4681 before closing the day at 1.4466 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) with risk off the currency crashed nearly 3% falling below 0.8400 and then 0.8300. AUD/JPY slipped back to Y75 support but with Dow losses over 300 points the market is cautious of further selling Monday from Japanese investors. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8214 and a high of 0.8477 before closing the US session at 0.8230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) rallied off $1000 as the demand for alternative investments pushed the precious metal back to $1220. Overall trading with a low of USD$1197 and high of USD$1221 before ending the New York session at USD$1219 an ounce. Oil Slumped on investor concerns about global growth. WTI Oil Closed -$3.10 at $71.51 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.1640

1.1827

1.1910

1.2453

1.2587

USD/JPY

89.81

90.54

91.10

92.97

93.64

GBP/USD

1.4231

1.4366

1.4430

1.4878

1.4918

AUD/USD

0.8000

0.8067

0.8135

0.8552

0.8579

XAU/USD

1185.00

1202

1218

1229

1250.00

OIL/USD

70.00

72.50

70.30

75.00

76.00

Euro - 1.1910

Initial support at 1.1827 (March 2006 low) followed by 1.1640 (Nov 2005 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2453 (May 28 high) followed by 1.2587 (May 24 high)

Yen - 91.10

Initial support is located at 90.54 (June 1 low) followed by 89.81 (May 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.97 (May 18 low) followed by 93.64 (May 13 high).

Pound - 1.4430

Initial support at 1.4366 (Mary 27 low) followed by 1.4231 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4878 (50% 0f 1.5544-1.4231) followed by 1.4918 (May 13 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8135

Initial support at 0.8067 (May 25 low) followed by the 0.8000 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 0. 8552 (May 28 low) followed by 0.8579 (Feb 5 low).

Gold - 1218

Initial support at 1202 (May 28 low) followed by 1185 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1229 (Key level) followed by 1250 (1123.90 plus 1.618 of 1085.3-1170.1).

Oil - 70.30

Initial support at 70.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 69.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 72.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Resistance).