The greenback has lost ground versus the British pound which has been bounced back up after the release of the CBI retail sales figure of September which came up in an unexpected way at 3 while the market was waiting for just -14 from -16 in August. The cable has formed a higher low at 1.5825 and it is now testing 1.60. The cable has made previously in the beginning of this week a new low below 1.58 at 1.577 after a dovish closing last week below 1.60.
While the single currency is still struggling under 1.46 versus the greenback in spite of the improving of the EU consumers confidence of September to -19 from -22 in August sentiment in worries about the ECB acceptance of the single currency recent appreciation and its negative impact on the EU exports and the EU economic recovery as we have seen in the recent days increasing worries of the central banks about the current forex movements and its impact on the recovery in EU and Japan containing the current market sentiment and weighing on the movement of the Japanese yen and the single currency which could break above its previous resistance versus the greenback at 1.4715 this month reaching 1.484 after the Fed's interest rate decision last Wednesday and US assessment which came as widely expected encouraging a profit taken wave in the Equities markets and USD buying back waiting for further stronger signs of recovery.
So, God willing, it is important to wait today for the US consumers confidence index of September which is expected to rise again to 57 from 54.1 in August and tomorrow US Chicago PMI which is waited to be 52.1 and later this week for Sep US ISM manufacturing index which is expected be 54 after rising in August to 52,9 and by the end of the week for the US labor report of September which is expected to show a rising of the unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.7% in August and a losing of the non-farm payrolls by another188k jobs.
Walid Salah El Din