The ECB president Trichet has mentioned in the press conference after the ECB interest rate decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1% that he sees that inflation is anchored over the medium and the short term and the growth will be moderated this year and the current interest rate in appropriate but after the press started their questions about the single currency value he has mentioned that he is appreciate the strong dollar policy of US which has shown to the market that he is accepts a lower exchange rate after this recent massive falling of the single currency from above 1.51 in the beginning of last December. His comments about withdrawing the easing measures of the ECB for providing liquidity by buying covered bonds have shown that there is no action by the second quarter of this year which shows that the growth in EU is still fragile and in need of the central bank underpinning further. The single currency has broker 1.3820 directly after his comments about the strong dollar policy of US. The next support stands at 1.375 then 1.343. The next resistance is mainly just above 1.40 psychological level when it failed to break above 1.404. Trichet has appreciated the Greece effort in fighting the consolidation of its deficit and the other European countries which is facing the same problems like Spain and Portugal and he ensured that it is the same for them all to take the required steps for driving down the deficit rate below 3% of the GDP as the treaty of Maastricht. He has talked about the IMF target for driving this ratio below 6% all over the world and the excessive deficit in US and other industrial countries like Japan which has a ratio above 10% of its GDP to calm down the market. The single currency can face further pressure after his comments capped by dovish investing sentiment can underpin the greenback after the dovish opening of the US equities market which is still looking for a bottom of the correction which has started earlier last month when Dow reached 10729 and from other side, the technical breaking below 1.40 can add momentum to this falling at the current dovish market sentiment which can underpin this current single currency downward trend.


Best wishes


FX Consultant

Walid Salah El Din