Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro holds recent gains ahead of today's ECB Interest Rate decision at 12:45 GMT - expected to remain unchanged at 1%. Other important economic events today are: Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. at 13:30 GMT. Technically speaking, momentum in the daily frame is positive as higher highs into the 1.45 region are in focus since Monday's rally - extension of negative NFP's reaction. While the dollar is under constant pressure-odds favor further climbing of euro, aiming the 1.4600 handle, potentially 1.4700 later. A sustained break above current consolidation range, particularly by closing a daily bar above 1.4530/50, is yet to be seen in order to have a meaningful bullish confirmation. In case of a pullback from current levels, intra-day support levels to watch are: 1.4450/70 which provided a bottom over the last two days, backed by the 1.4400 handle and 1.4330/50 lower. Current exchange rate is 1.4544 @07:15 GMT

Support: 1.4450/70, 1.4400/20, 1.4330/50 and 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4550/80, 1.4600 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - slightly bullish, short term - bullish, intra-day - bullish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 1-14-2010
dollar index daily chart 1-14-2010


Trading strategy: short at .7520, stop at .7570 (1% risk), 1st objective at .7470, 2nd objective at .7420

The kiwi dollar continues to trade in a narrow range against the buck, but holding gains above .7400 so far. Intra-day resistance comes near current market levels - at .7430. A potential break out above the .7430 top should be met with renewed buying along with short covering, hence opening .7500 which is a more notable barrier to watch - formed by November's top where gains have been limited, initiating a 500 points corrective phase. Both short-term and intra-day charts are in a bullish stance and things should remain unchanged as long as .7300 is there to support the bulls (short-term basis). Current exchange rate is .7424 @07:15 GMT

Support: .7400, .7350, .7300 and .7250/85
Resistance: .7430/50, .7500 and .7600/30
Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - bullish, short term - bullish, intra-day - bullish

NZDUSD daily chart 1-14-2010

Have a good day!