Quote of the day: The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside - George Soros

EURUSD

Trading strategy: short at 1.4680, stop at 1.4740 (1% risk), 1st objective at 1.4620, 2nd objective at 1.4560

Offers around the 1.4550 level are being tested at the time of writing this, recovering 50 points which is one third of yesterday's losses - less than required to confirm the beginning of a prolonged recovery. While the ongoing euro's recovery continues - important upside barriers to watch are set at 1.4585/00 - downward trend line coming from 1.5140 along with the 61.8% of yesterday's range - where a potential breach would open the next notable barrier around 1.4680/00 - last week's bottom which became resistance since Friday's break down. In case of decline's extension - 1.4450/65 comes next, below 1.4500. Upside is slightly favored for now, but only on hourly basis. Extended rallies could face strong selling into the 1.46-1.47 range. Interest rate decision in the U.S. later today may also cause some volatile moves, as well providing clues on upcoming market direction. Current exchange rate is 1.4550 @07:10 GMT

Support: 1.4500, 1.4450/65 and 1.4400
Resistance: 1.4585/00, 1.4650 and 1.4700
Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - slightly bullish, short term - bearish, intra-day - slightly bullish

EURUSD
EURUSD hourly chart 12-16-2009

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: holding yesterday's long at .7200, stop at .7160 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at .7240, 2nd objective at .7300

Downside pressure intensified through the Asian session as the NZD fell below .7200 which provided support yesterday. Since the 50% retracement of last up leg from .7040 to .7315 is still intact, the kiwi dollar might have a chance to recover - so I think it's better to hold yesterday's triggered long at .7200, as risk is low - instead of closing now for a small loss. Since this .7180-.7200 region is an important support on a short-term basis, I'd say that the pair is at the crossroad - a potential break lower would re-initiate bearish momentum on the daily charts. I am carefully watching the pair for now and I will probably write an update later today, depending on what will happen. Current exchange rate is .7189 @07:10 GMT

Support: .7180/00, .7150, .7100, .7000/15
Resistance: .7240/50, .7300, .7320/50, .7385/00 and .7500
Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - bullish, short term - slightly bullish, intra-day - bearish

NZDUSD
NZDUSD 4hrs chart 12-16-2009

Have a good day!

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