Daily analysis and trading strategies 2-18-10

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro declined back into the $1.35 region, giving back Tuesday's gains so the recovery scenario is on-hold for now as the recently formed intra-day bullish structure has been negated by breaking through support levels at 1.3685/00 and 1.3650/60, lower. Both levels may provide resistance on rallies, maintaining the downside pressure intact. Above the $1.37 level, uptrend would resume but a full confirmation above 1.3850/60 will be needed - on a short-term basis. My yesterday's strategy to go long at 1.3690 - expecting a bounce off support - was a bad idea. Intra-day studies are currently bearish and will turn positive in case 1.3630 will be breached. Recent low at 1.3530 remains in focus, followed by 1.3450/80. Current exchange rate is 1.3592 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.3530/50, 1.3500, 1.3450/80 and 1.3400 Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3630, 1.3650/60 and 1.3700 Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - bearish, short term - bearish, intra-day - bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 2-18-2010

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: holding yesterday's long at .7010, stop at .6980 (adjusted), objective at .7150.

Kiwi's losses against the dollar have been smaller as carry trade instruments are performing quite well since last week. Former resistance around the .7000 level provides support for now and resistance is seen around .7075, followed by .7125/50. On a short term basis, a potential break above .7150 will be a very important bullish confirmation. Meanwhile, pressure remains high due to dollar's strength but upside is slightly favored. My yesterday's strategy to go long at .7010 has been triggered and it's worth holding it for now as the test of .7000 could have been corrective only. The position shows a minor profit currently but if the U.S. dollar will strengthen further - a re-test of .6990/00 will most likely turn bad for the NZD. Current exchange rate is .7023 @06:55 GMT

Support: .6990/00, .6960/70 and .6900/30 Resistance: .7075, .7100, .7125/50 and .7200  Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - slightly bearish, short term - slightly bullish, intra-day - neutral

NZDUSD 4hrs chart 2-18-2010

Have a great day!