Daily analysis and trading strategies 2-19-10

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro comes under high pressure once again against the dollar, eroding the recent bottom into the 1.3530/50 region as the Fed chose to bump up the discount lending rate by one-quarter point to 0.75 percent. Yesterday's initial gains to 1.3650 were short-lived and intense selling emerged. The 61.8% retracement of last year's full move from 1.2455 to 1.5145 - at 1.3485 was not a good option for buyers to come in, therefore the decline extended further and the 1.3400 level is in focus, not far away from current rates. Both short term and intra-day studies are bearish and potential gains should face resistance around 1.3550, then higher into yesterday's top region around 1.3650. Selling rallies remains the preferred bet for now, as no notable sign of recovery is seen. Current exchange rate is 1.3468 @07:02 GMT

Support: 1.3440/50, 1.3400 and 1.3350Resistance: 1.3500, 1.3550/60, 1.3600 and 1.3650/60Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - bearish, short term - bearish, intra-day - bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 2-19-2010

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: small short at .6990, stop at .7030(0.5% risk), objective at .6930. Stop at breakeven on +20 pips (at .6970) if reached

.6900 comes in focus now as the upward trend line support around .7000 was breached. Short-term studies turned bearish and no change is in sight while below former support .7000. My long at .7010 was closed at breakeven on the decline from .7050. If the NZ dollar recovers some ground - resistance around .6990/00 may cap the upside. Current exchange rate is .6942 @07:02 GMT

Support: .6900/30, .6850 and .6800/20Resistance: 6990/00, .7020 and .7050/75Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - slightly bearish, short term - bearish, intra-day - bearish

NZDUSD 4hrs chart 2-19-2010

GBPUSD

GBPUSD daily chart 2-19-2010

GBPUSD 4hrs chart 2-19-2010

Have a great weekend!