Australian Dollar: A softer than expected result in the NAB business confidence survey did little to curb enthusiasm for the Aussie dollar in Asia yesterday as it held on to intraday support at 0.9050. During the offshore session the AUD momentarily jumped above the 91 cent mark following a rally in the Euro only to pull back to exchange at 0.9050 this morning ahead of the release of Westpac's Consumer Confidence survey.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9020 to 0.9100

Great Britain Pound: The Cable once again traded to the downside in Europe following lower than expected inflation figures out of the U.K. Economists had forecast inflation to fall from 1.6% in August to 1.3% however the larger than predicted decline to 1.1% is an indication that the Bank of England will have to maintain is easy monetary policy for some time to come yet. After testing 1.5700 the Pound Sterling bounced back above 1.5800 and opens this morning near 1.5900 with a smaller than expected decline in the Retail Price index adding some support along with continued Greenback weakness, particularly against the Euro. The GBP/AUD cross rate found some respite from the rally to open this morning around 1.7550 after having exchanged as low as 1.7330 in earlier trade.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7475 to 1.7625

New Zealand Dollar: A much stronger than expected N.Z Retail Sales result sent the Kiwi dollar soaring over the last 24 hours trading to an eventual overnight high above 74 cents. With forecasts for sales to rebound from -0.5% in July to around +0.5% the market was caught by surprise by the +1.1% result triggering an immediate buying frenzy. This morning sees it exchanging around 0.7340 ahead of September REINZ House Sales data which is sure to keep it volatile.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7300 to 0.7375

Majors: Despite a worse than expected ZEW economic sentiment survey the Euro held on to support ahead of 1.4750 against the U.S dollar to exchange as high as 1.4875 overnight and opens in Asia this morning at 1.4825. The weakness in the Greenback comes ahead of the conclusion to the Bank of Japan's meeting today where it is possible the central bank will announce an end to the corporate debt purchase program as expected on December 31. Reinforcement of such a move is likely to add further support to the Yen which opens at 89.73 today however traders are cautious leading into this evenings release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

Data Releases:

  • AUD: Oct WBC Consumer Confidence
  • NZD: Sep REINZ House Sales
  • USD: Sep Advanced Retail Sales & FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • GBP: Aug 3mth ILO Unemployment Rate
  • EUR: Aug Industrial Production
  • JPY: BoJ Rate Announcement
  • CAD: Aug New Motor Vehicle Sales

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