:: Australian Dollar: In what is a rare occurrence of late the Aussie dollar remained in a narrow trading band between 0.8040 and 0.8090 on Friday to finish the week exchanging at 0.8070. With no local economic data released the AUD searched for direction from offshore threatening to break higher after better than expected German data however a rebound in demand for USD put a lid on any further advances. In Australia Wednesday sees the release of Retail Trade data which will provide investors with some further insight as to the resilience of the local economy. For the time being however the AUD/USD is expected to hover around the 80 cent level with the possibility of another upside test should talk of a new global reserve currency continue to ga in airtime.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8010 to 0.8100
:: Great Britain Pound: After running up to a high of 1.6550 during European trade the Pound Sterling retreated slightly to finish the week marginally above 1.65 against the Greenback. Better than expected U.S economic data in the form of the University of Michigan confidence index breathed some life into the U.S dollar in what was an otherwise relatively dull session. The lack of volatility saw the GBP/AUD cross rate hover in a range between 2.0450 and 2.0500 to open this morning at the bottom end of the band at 2.0450.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0400 to 2.0500
:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi dived from 0.6465 to 0.6405 in quick fashion on Friday following the larger than expected 1% drop in first quarter economic growth. Analysts had forecast N.Z GDP to fall for the fifth consecutive quarter however the size of the drop caught the market by surprise with the annual figure falling to -2.7%. Surprisingly the Kiwi dollar held up relatively well in offshore trade managing to hold on to technical support at 64 cents to post an eventual high around 0.6475. Today sees the release of Trade Balance data out of New Zealand which should provide investors with some further direction.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6375 to 0.6475
:: Majors: The Euro received a boost in early European trade on Friday from a slightly better than expected preliminary reading for Germany's June Consumer Price Index. Economists were forecasting a fall to -0.1% on an annualised basis however the Federal Statistical Office predicts the result will come in at +0.1%. EUR/USD spiked above 1.4100 on a couple of occasions throughout Friday's session before pulling back to finish the week at 1.4065. On the U.S data front the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index saw confidence unexpectedly rise from 69 to 70.8 in June giving the big dollar a boost against the Euro in late trade. Despite the positive data doubt continues over the longer term prospects for the Greenback with persistent talk of a new global reserve currency out of China.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: No Data Expected today
- NZD: May Trade Balance & May Building Permits
- USD: Jun Dallas Fed Manufacturing
- GBP: June Nationwide House Prices & June Hometrack Housing Survey
- EUR: Jun Euro-Zone Confidence
- JPY: May Industrial Production & May Retail Trade
- CAD: No Data Expected today