Daily comments for Monday, July 13, 2009

 @ibtimes
on July 13 2009 10:46 AM

Friday closed the day split with the Nasdaq green and the S&P 500 along with the Dow slightly red. Volume was light throughout the day leaving Friday a little lackluster for us. The week closed negative, leaving the market with 2 down weeks and mid July. The TRIN closed at 1.96, very bearish on the day with such a modest range. VIX closed at 29.02, just over the 10dma and near the weeks low. Gold closed down $3.90 to $912.30 and oil off 59 cents at $59.82 a barrel.

Last week started with a gap down on Monday and the market continued to make lower highs throughout the week on each swing (look at 65 minute to see that). By weeks end the market was off the lows with a higher low on the COMPX, NDX and SPX, which is a triangle and right into the upper trendline of the triangle on the 65 minute charts. The Dow is possibly a descending triangle or double bottom forming. Weekly charts saw the RSI tip down, CCI is over 0 line but not by far, MACD is now touching and we could see it cross down if the market takes on any water this week. Leaving us to look for the bears still. NDX 1333, COMPX 1645, SPX 845, and the Dow 7958 for 38.2% support off the March lows. Intraday strength will be suspect unless we see a catalyst off earnings to turn the table back up until those 38.2% supports get a look.

Earnings will be in focus this week, with a lot of financials this week. Most the financials report pre market leaving after hours to focus on tech. Banks (BKX) have seen four consecutive down weeks and Brokers (XBD) have been down three of the last four weeks. The Semiconductors (SOX) have alternated up and down for six weeks, with INTC this week that should find some direction. Hardware traded into 78.6% and came off , IBM reports this week to impact hardware stocks. Internets will have GOOG to watch for all of which leaves the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow ready for a move in the upcoming week. Economic data will be steady throughout the week to add to our volatility and if ALL of that isn't enough Friday is July option expiration to add to the volatility.

Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas, Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index.

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute:   Monday pre market SCHW, FAST and after the bell CSX, NVLS. Tuesday pre market GS, JNJ, MTB and after the bell ADTN, INTC, YUM. Wednesday pre market ABT, TXI, and after the bell JBHT, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, CY, FCS, JPM, MBFI, NOK, PII and after the bell ESLR, GOOG, IBM, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, WBS and nothing after the bell.

SPX (S&P 500) closed -3.55 at 879.13. Support: 877.45, 845.66 38.2%, 811.51. Resistance: 893.55, 910.72 50dma, 918.40, 931.92.

S&P
S&P 500 Index

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