Tuesday left the markets with a very narrow range since October 14th on the COMPX, 15th on the NDX, 13th on the SPX, and the Dow since Sept 18th. The market was also split on the days outcome, the NYSE volume was lower and Nasdaq was equal to yesterdays. SPX and COMPX closed marginally lower on the day and a modest win on the NDX and Dow. The TRIN closed at .88 and the VIX at 22.84. Gold closed up $1.10 to $1102.50 and oil down .39 to $79.04 a barrel.
The morning traded through yesterday's highs, leaving the market looking for a break out, but it was the move that never came. The range was very narrow and digestive, which is expected after a big trending move that we saw on Monday. The Dow did close at new highs on 2009 again today, that small move helped to put even more distance off 10,000. I mentioned last week (Thursday) that we had an inverted head and shoulders on the 60 minute ES and NQ, the ES neckline was at 1062 area for a move up to 1095 for completion. The NQ neckline was at 1715 area for about a 72 point move into 1787 for completion. The ES was very close today, the NQ has plenty of room today. Over the weekend on comments I mentioned the possibility of an ABC pattern that started early July and with this pullback completed a C leg off the October 21st highs. A retest of the highs on the 21st will either break out or we'll see a lower high/same high to reverse off this pattern. A break would let us see 2 more legs up for a 5 wave instead of an ABC. There is no way to know which it is, until those highs are broken or failure to break out happens. Futures did not test weekly pivots again today, which are under and will take a big turn to see those this week down at ES 1054, NQ 1705.75, TF 571.10.
Into Wednesday the market is likely to be light and quiet, it is Veteran's day. Plenty of people will take that holiday and the bond market is closed. That generally makes for a quiet day, however because Monday trended higher and Tuesday was very narrow, Wednesday is likely to see a bigger range than Tuesday. Which should setup some opportunities to trade, although it is likely to be on light volume. The market's range can be bracketed and watch for a break, because volume will likely be light, the breaks aren't going to be with volume. Which is hard to trust the move, but keep the holiday in mind. Thursday and Friday will bring in participation from earnings and economic data to get things back to normal.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APU, M, ZOLL and after the bell AMAT, CSC, NTES, WES. Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1090.50, weekly pivot 1054. Intraday support: 1084, 1081.50, 1078.25, 1074, 1068.25, 1066.50 11/6 gap. Resistance: 1093, 1095 (measured move on Inv. H&S), 1098.50 10/21 swing high, 1101.25, 1107.75, 1118.25