Thursday moved the market higher on lighter volume, regaining ground and retracing losses on light volume is not bullish. The market will need volume to see this continue into Friday. The A/D and U/D closed at the highs on the day, opposite of yesterday's lows. The TRIN closed at .58, bullish tone on the day. The VIX closed at 24.76, back on yesterday's lows. Gold closed the day up $16.60 to $1047.10 and oil up $2.43 to $79.89 a barrel.
Wednesday closed with that low TRIN to throw off the markets tone, today followed that with a nice bounce. Although the day was an inside day for the Nasdaq, it was still a decent lift. The Dow and SPX were not inside days, both closed over yesterdays high. All the indexes that fell under the 50dma yesterday, were back over those key moving averages today. Plenty to think about heading into Friday. The good GDP data put a nice spark in the market but missing heavy participation. Without volume we can't expect to see continuation. Looming uncertainty into next weeks Fed meeting is likely to hold the market in this area.
Holding over the 50dma will keep the bullish tone, but a lagging Nasdaq and lacking volume need to come along. Early strength will be respected, but the Nasdaq has to take hold into Friday early on to see this move further to the upside. I'm pretty neutral for the close of the month/week. An end of month tug of war with volume, but no expansion in range would not surprise us. The last three months the days range was very small, I expect Friday to follow that trend. Just getting the month to hold over the 50dma and now that the Nas 100 and Nas Composite sit just modestly red on the month right now, that could change with a small up day. SPX and DOW sit just on the green side of the line, that won't hold with any pressure. Leaving Friday to battle the red/green line in the sand for the month. Data will set the days tone and help us to move early on.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +29.21 at 1711.27. Support: 1694.79 50dma, 1656.57 Oct low, 1633.39, 1587.85. Resistance: 1718.12, 1742.06, 1759.11.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY. Monday pre market CLX, F, OSG, and after the bell CHK, DLLR. Tuesday ABC, ADM, CAM, BJS, ICE, MRO, MA, JOE, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ONXX, TIE, TRLG. Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.