The Nasdaq 100 closed modestly red while the other key indexes closed modestly green. Volume came in very strong and by far the highest we've seen in over a week. Futures were significantly higher and the ES almost doubled yesterdays. Big participation to close out September on high note. Big gains for the month on each index and is leaving the market with some unknowns heading into October and earnings season. The TRIN closed at 1.28, well off its near 3 readings earlier in the day. The VIX closed up 42 cents at 25.61. Gold pushed up $15.10 closing at $1009.50 and oil up $3.78 to close at $70.49 a barrel.
The Chicago PMI shook the market in a BIG way, falling through supports, but holding the weeks low. Just to be sure we don't get a new high or low on the last day of the week. When looking at the daily chart it looks like the market did nothing all day. That was not really the intraday picture, the market went from oversold to overbought all in a matter of hours. Typical end of quarter action to play tug of war throughout the day. Now that is behind us! HOORAY!!
Alright Thursday kicks off October, also the sites 4th anniversary. Although was a narrow range day, it did show some fatigue by days end. The CCI is at 0 line support, RSI turned down, MACD pointed down and only stochastics is not signaling the bears on the daily charts for the indexes. Because nothing changed the same levels we've watched all week are still under the microscope. Each index resistance to watch SPX 1065.26, COMPX 2136.24, NDX 1730.40 and Dow 9812.50. Key support for Nasdaq Composite 2076.76 38.2%, Nas 100 1681.43 38.2%, S&P 500 1041.32 38.2%, Dow 9585.46 50% is still on tap for us to watch. I expect to see a break of the weeks range tomorrow. We marked time into month end to have a great gain, now is the time to look forward to earnings. October 7th Alcoa (AA) kicks off earnings season. That will roll-out slowly through next week and pick up steam into the following week.
ES over 1061 look for the weeks high 1075.75. ANY failure to rally we look for 1047.50 and lower to come our way. NQ over 1728.50 and onto 1753.25 the weeks highs. NQ under 1697.50 look for 1688 and lower. The ES around 1054 has been a real struggle all week, rotating off the ledge there is our first move on the ES into Thursday. Early data is likely to move us and the Fed Chairman speaks prior to the market opening. That could get things moving WELL ahead of the bell. I don't have a real bias for direction, but marginally suspect of this propped up day for month end.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders. Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventory, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1051.75, weekly pivot 1051. Intraday support: 1048.25, 1045.25, 1042.50-1041.50, 1036.25. Resistance: 1060.50-1061, 1064.25, 1067.50, 1071.50, 1075.75