Monday closed the day modestly green and volume was slightly lighter than Friday's. It was still a healthy day of participation, it just didn't outpace Fridays huge levels. The TRIN closed at .98 neutral and the VIX at 29.78. Gold closed up $13.90 to $1054.30 and oil up $1.09 to $78.09. After Friday's big move down and the push over 30 on the VIX today ended digestive.
With Monday's mid range close the market left us neutral. Just a resting day, despite the fact that we did take out Friday's (last weeks) low. However, we closed back within Friday's range and held the market in a narrow range to digest last weeks month end action. The daily charts are riding the lower Bollinger and sitting over key supports still (2013.55 COMPX, 1633.39 NDX, 1012.72 SPX, and Dow 9343.14). The Dow sits on the 50dma, but the COMPX, NDX and SPX all fell under last week and still sit just under those key moving averages. The 10dma and 20dema still continue to come down, which should be watched for a cross of the two. If the longer term ma's start to cross the shorter that helps the bears gain control.
Into Tuesday the market will likely keep a tone similar to what we saw today. There is no reason for the first half of the week to get in a hurry ahead of the Fed and bigger economic data to come in Wednesday - Friday. An early lift and then watch Monday's high and onto Friday's high to test for key levels. Below is will be the same supports outlined above for a test. It wouldn't take much for the market to push either direction from here with the neutral day we just put in. Futures did not test the weekly pivots at 1050 ES, 1700 NQ and 576.50 on the TF, should be watched for still into Tuesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday ABC, ADM, CAM, BJS, ICE, MRO, MA, JOE, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ONXX, TIE, TRLG. Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1038.25, weekly pivot 1050. Intraday support: 1039, 1032.75, 1028.25, 1026-1025, 1020, 1016.50-1015.50-1015, 1003.50. Resistance: 1040.50, 1045, 1049.50, 1053.75, 1062.25-1064, 1071.