Daily Comments for Tuesday, October 13, 2009

on October 13 2009 8:09 AM

Monday kicked the week off with modest gains on the broader indexes, the Nas Composite did leave a 14 cent loss. Overall was a narrow range day full of chop and no participation, anemic volume. Very typical for a partial holiday, it was barely worth showing up for today. The TRIN closed bullish at .58 and the VIX at 23.01. Gold closed at $1057.80 up $9.20 and oil up $1.38 to $73.15 a barrel.

The Dow did trade over 9917.99 the 2009 high, but came back in to close at 9885.80. The SPX traded up to 1079.46 within 69 cents of the 2009 high. The Nasdaq sat about 12.00 off the 1754.54 2009 highs and the Nas Composite about 13.00 off the 2009 highs. Pretty good attempt to get up for a test there and hold. Not getting the job done today changes nothing in the market because of the volume missing today. Which leaves every indicator about the same place we closed at on Friday and not a lot of bias in the market. The bulls still have hold of the market and weakness is being bought. Nothing is changing until it does on that front and if we can't take out the 2009 highs and close over them by mid week, the bears will step in and double top this market to put a lid on us for a pullback.

Tuesday look for the futures pivots to test, we didn't even get to the daily pivots today much less the weekly. The weekly are under us and not within sight yet, but it is option expiration week and a swing both directions usually comes into play by mid week. Some nervousness ahead of the INTC earnings will be the focus throughout Tuesday. Once we hear from that tech monster the market will focus on the financials yet to come this week. I have some downside preference for early into Tuesday and for the dip buyers to come in, INTC is expected to come in good, but the guidance is what we are looking for. The market looks forward and we've come along with little to back that up, now earnings have to back that up. Sitting right at the years highs is the line in the sand and not a place for the market to rethink this move up. It is time to move up and over or come off.

Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Economic Optimism, 1:00 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks, TBA Federal Budget Balance, Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute:   Tuesday pre market JNJ and after the bell INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market JPM, and after the bell STLD, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, SCHW, CIT, C, CY, GS, NOK, LUV, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, IBM, NVLS, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell.

ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1071.75, weekly pivot 1052.25. Intraday support: 1065.50, 1062.50-1061, 1059 swing low, 1056.75, 1054 fills gap, 1052.75, 1048.25, 1045.50, 1037 gap fill. Resistance: 1072.75, 1075.75 9/23 swing high, 1078.25, 1080.25, 1084.50, 1089.25.

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