:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar was unable to hold onto momentum gained by Thursday's stellar employment report peaking near 92 cents during Friday's European session. With currency markets trading in line with economic fundamentals over the last week the AUD retreated following an increase in demand for the USD after strong U.S economic data in the form of Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence. This morning sees the AUD exchanging around 0.9120 with Tuesdays release of the RBA board minutes and Wednesdays Q3 GDP data likely to prove critical for the direction of the Aussie dollar this week.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9075 to 0.9150
:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling maintained a trading range between 1.6280 and 1.6330 for the majority of the Asian and European sessions on Friday before sliding lower against the Greenback during the U.S time-zone. The market seemingly ignored softer than expected U.K PPI data for November and it took stronger than expected U.S economic data to trigger another round of GBP/USD selling. After momentarily exchanging below 1.6200 the Pound Sterling opens this morning around 1.6235 against the Greenback and 1.7800 versus the Australian dollar.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7750 to 1.7850
:: New Zealand Dollar: After exchanging at a high of 0.7285 during the European morning session the Kiwi reversed its earlier gains falling to a low of 0.7220. With U.S Retail Sales and University of Michigan Confidence data beating expectations demand for the Greenback emerged triggering the fall. Today sees several N.Z economic data releases with the REINZ November House Price report the main highlight. The AUD/NZD cross rate opens this morning around 1.2575 holding steady after a sharp drop last week following the RBNZ meeting. With several key pieces of information out of Australia midweek the cross is likely to remain volatile heading into the Christmas period.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7225 to 0.7275
:: Majors: Better than expected U.S economic data released on Friday saw the Greenback strengthen as the correlation between risk appetite and the big dollar appears to be detaching. In months gone by positive U.S data has seen the USD weaken as investors gained confidence in gaining better return for risk offshore. There are signs however the trend is reversing and currency fluctuations are now shifting back to fundamentals. With Retail Sales growth of 1.3% in November exceeding forecasts for a 0.6% increase and the preliminary reading for December University of Michigan Confidence survey also beating economist predictions rising from 67.7 to 73.4 the dollar rallied. EUR/USD fell from 1.4770 to 1.4585 while USD/JPY peaked at 89.80, up from early European lows around 88.60.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: No Data Expected Today
- NZD: Nov REINZ House Prices, Nov QV House Prices & Sep Performance of Services Index
- USD: No Data Expected Today
- GBP: Dec Rightmove House Prices
- EUR: Q3 Employment & Oct Industrial Production
- JPY: Q4 Tankan Survey, Oct Industrial Production & Oct Capacity Utilisation
- CAD: Q3 Capacity Utilisation