OzForex Daily Commentary - 20/11/2009

:: Australian Dollar: Average weekly wages increased by 5.2% in August and 0.9% for the year to date, down from 6.1% the previous month and 1.2% for the year to July. The news was enough to tip the AUD/USD below intraday technical support at 0.9270 to a low of 0.9220 in Asia yesterday. The Aussie dollar followed the Euro lower in early trade to revisit the 0.9130 level before bouncing back in late U.S trade following some relatively upbeat North American economic data. This morning sees the AUD open trade back near the 92 cent handle seemingly contained within a 89 to 94 cent range for the time being with some sections of the market losing faith in the parity story.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9125 to 0.9225

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling declined overnight despite U.K Retail Sales hitting a 17 month high on an annualised basis in October. For the 12 months to October retail spending increased by 3.4%, well above forecast for a 2.9% rise however the news was outweighed by the huge increase in global growth forecasts by the OECD which triggered a flight to the Greenback. After reaching a low near 1.6600 against the U.S dollar the Cable opens this morning at 1.6665 while the GBP/AUD cross rate exchanges at 1.8120.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8050 to 1.8200

:: New Zealand Dollar: After losing some ground in Asia yesterday to enter offshore trade around 0.7380 the downtrend continued overnight. The Kiwi exchanged as low as 0.7270 at one point on the back of weakness in the EUR/USD. This morning sees the NZD open at 0.7310 and 1.2565 against the USD and AUD ahead of N.Z October Credit Card Spending data and the BoJ interest rate decision today.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7285 to 0.7350

:: Majors: With the OECD announcing a massive increase in 2010 and 2011 growth forecasts for developed countries the big dollar strengthened in European trade overnight. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its 2010 target to 1.9% and 2011 to 2.5% which is a massive turnaround from this year's 3.5% contraction. EUR/USD fell from 1.4925 to 1.4850 in relatively quick time during early London only to then hold onto a narrow 1.4850 to 1.4880 range for the majority of the session. During the U.S time zone however the fortunes reversed following a slightly disappointing Leading Indicators report which, despite increasing 0.3% in October, was below consensus forecasts and points to a slow U.S economic recovery. EUR/USD retested 1.4925 in late trade and opens this morning near its highs at 1.4915 with only no European or U.S economic data of note scheduled for release on Friday. In Asia today the focus will be on the BoJ and the conclusion of its two day policy meeting. While no change is expected in the official interest rate the accompanying statement will be closely scrutinised as USD/JPY attempts to break out of its recent range between 88.50 and 89.50.

:: Data Releases:

  • AUD: No Data Expected Today
  • NZD: Oct Credit Card Spending
  • USD: No Data Expected Today
  • GBP: No Data Expected Today
  • EUR: Oct German PPI
  • JPY: BoJ Rate Decision
  • CAD: No Data Expected Today

:: Note: The above exchange rates are based on interbank rates. If you are considering a transfer then please login, register or call us for a live dealing rate.