Bias: I feel we may have seen the high already…
While not on my list of targets the bearish divergences are pretty deep and we may well have seen the high at 79.54. However, the key support at 79.10 has so far held so we must be open to minor extensions higher. Above 79.54 sees resistance quickly at 79.68-74. Take care here as this could cap. Only breach would retest the 80.03 high and potentially then the 80.56 area.
29th September: Yesterday's sharp recovery came as a surprise and thus we should be cautious around the 79.88-03 highs in case we get a double top. Failing that I see resistance at 80.66, 81.34 and then the 81.97 high.
I am still rather cautious about expecting breach of 80.03 and feel that the area between 79.54-74 has a few projected targets so with quite a number of bearish divergences around we should be aware of the risk of a reversal lower. Indeed, the move from 79.54 has stalled just above the key 79.10 corrective low and if this breaks then I feel it will spur further losses. Once seen look for extension to the 78.55 swing low at least and although it may stall the decline temporarily I would expect this decline to reach the 77.95-78.18 area at least but this should provide a pullback. Next support is seen at 77.16-34 and 76.82.
1st October: Bearish divergences are developing and from 79.54-74 or below 79.10 I feel we can see extension to 77.95-78.18 and then towards 11.16-34 and 76.82.
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