Bias: Mixed € waiting for breaks
While losses broke below 0.7722 these stalled at 0.7701 and generated a firm reversal higher. The rally looks as if it should reach the 0.7760-74 area again. However, until this breaks we should be cautious about expecting any stronger follow-through. If seen then look for the rally to extend above 0.7903 and to 0.7928. Take a little care as this could cause a reaction but overall I feel this break higher should then extend towards 0.7981 and to the 0.8037 corrective high.
14th July: Downside failure concerns but only a break back above 0.7974-80 would maintain the positive momentum for 0.8037 and possibly even the 0.8154 high.
While 0.7860-74 caps I feel we can see a reversal back lower so look for a bearish reversal pattern as we approach. Only an earlier break back below 0.7789 would likely send price down sooner and if seen would extend losses back to the 0.7701-22 area. I suspect this should cause a correction. Below 0.7700 extends losses to 0.7636 and possibly 0.7590.
9th July: The eventual target at 0.7633 was achieved more directly than anticipated and thus I feel we should be looking for the 0.7939-0.7993 area as a possible cap for the next leg lower€¦ Only below 0.7722 directly would imply losses to 0.7633-39 before higher.
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