Bias: I feel the 0.7919-38 area will cap for a correction back lower
Yesterday saw more range trading and this does place a little uncertainty over the short term expectations but with bearish divergences now in the 4 hour chart I feel that we can still see a pullback lower. The key resistance is at 0.7819-37 which we have tested already. Thus any bullish stance will require break of 0.7840 and if seen the risk will appear to be directly higher to 0.7861 at least - take a little care here - but the larger targets at 0.7919, 0.7954 and 0.7990-28 will begin to kick in.
20th May: The rally is on its way and while 0.7616-45 supports there will be further to go. From that support look for gains back to 0.7783 and then towards 0.7917 minimum and more likely to the 0.7990-0.8028 resistance where I see a MT cap forming.
The recent consolidation does make things look more clouded but considering the bearish divergences and the need to see a deeper pullback before moving to the eventual 0.80 target I feel today should prove to be a down day. There is resistance between 0.7819-37 and I look for this to cap and for a pullback lower through 0.7769 to extend to 0.7742 and probably lower. Indeed, this could keep going back to the 0.7668 low and possibly even 0.7629 before it stalls.
20th May: The break higher suggests we should be patient for the 0.7990-0.8028 area which I feel will cap for a deeper correction. Only an earlier drop below 0.7615 would imply an earlier decline.
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