Bias: Cautiously while 0.8233-41 caps we should begin to see losses€¦ else we may see 0.8330-53
Well, we saw the anticipated test of 0.8263 and the bearish divergences are very clear. However, the 4 hour divergence is threatening to break and thus we should still keep an eye out for additional gains. There is resistance at 0.8233-44 and breach should trigger another rally which should push above the 0.8258-62 area and if seen then look for follow-through above 0.8288 and to the 0.8333-53 area at least. Take care around here as this could cap for a reversal. Above here is resistance at 0.8388 and 0.8423.
28th July: The downside has not yet been firm enough and therefore the risk still appears to be for a retest at the old 0.8263 high at least. If we get a break above 0.8263 then this rally could reach 0.8353 or as high as 0.8388-23.
The bearish divergences have seen little reaction yet and we'll need confirmation to see losses. There is minor support at 0.8201 and the clearer break level is at 0.8179. If this breaks then it should force follow-through all the way down to the 0.8088-0.8107 area. However, I'd expect this to hold on first test. Note support at 0.8050 also and below there at 0.7970.
24th July: It does look like we'll see the 0.8263 high again but with bearish divergences building we need to take care. I also note resistance around 0.8345-90. Only an earlier breach of the 0.8000 confirms a larger reversal lower.
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