Bias: Below 0.6450 would maintain losses for the 0.6417 low and probably beyond
This is looking pretty bearish now and the only hope for a push back higher is that the 0.6417 area supports. If so then we'll still need a break back above 0.6450 to generate a stronger pullback through 0.6501 for the 0.6530-50 area. Take care here as this could cap. Only breach would resurrect the possibility of a stronger move back higher.
30th January: Losses have been strong and don't really give much hope to the upside. Thus only while 0.6417-50 support and we get a break back above 0.6530-50 would I begin to consider the chance of a retest at 0.6625-50 and 0.6742.
Breach of 0.6570 has caused a deeper decline as warned and while 0.6450 could cause a pullback the larger threat does look like breach for the 0.6417 low and I don't think it will stop there either. The next support is at 0.6377. Take care there - only breach maintains the downward momentum for 0.6310 at least. Next stop is then 0.6209t.
30h January: We are seeing key supports break and this is raising the risk of new lows. A move below 0.6417 will maintain the downside for 0.6311 minimum. If 0.6295 breaks then the bigger risk is much lower…
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
As much as I would have preferred a bullish stance in a correction the breach of key supports is beginning to suggest that either we saw a deep Wave b of Wave v at 0.6417 or we have already seen the complete correction in Wave (b) at 0.6732.
If the pullback was a deep Wave b then we can refocus on the 66.7% projection in Wave v at 0.6377 and the 76.4% at 0.6311. If the 0.6732 high was Wave (b) then the picture is much more bearish but I'll await confirmation by a break of 0.6290.
Therefore only back above the 0.6530-50 area would seem to raise the chance that we're seeing a more complex Wave (b) and we'll get an idea if the next resistance at 0.6625-50 area breaks.