Bias: I feel there is probably early upside risk first but while 0.8080-0.8132 caps the next move should be lower
We did see new lows yesterday and while it doesn't really confirm the uptrend has ended it certainly strengthens the case. I find the recovery from the 0.7875 low to be rather messy and puts me in two minds. I suspect we should see 0.8080 again at a minimum. However, only breach there would extend gains to 0.8132 (max 0.8164.) Thus any stronger bullish stance will require breach of 0.8164 and if seen would extend the upward momentum for 0.8185 & 0.8225 and possibly the 0.8263 high.
4th June: In the end price stalled just below the 0.8297-13 resistance and the reversal doesn't encourage a bullish stance. Only if we see a swift move back above 0.8060 and then 0.8153-85 would there be any chance we could retest the 0.8263 high and possibly above...
Losses were direct yesterday but stalled just above the 0.7856 support. This was either and extension in the same wave lower - and thus we should see a correction of the entire move lower from 0.8263 or it was part of a complex irregular correction that would see a return to the corrective high around 0.8089 and possibly a little above - maximum 0.8132. Thus we need to look carefully for bearish reversal patterns around these two areas. Once price breaks lower and penetrates yesterday's 0.7875 low we should expect a stronger decline towards 0.7760 at least and I suspect into the 0.7600-42 support area where a larger correction can be expected.
5th June: This is progressing well and I feel that while the broad 0.8089-0.8134 resistance caps the next decline should reach the 0.7700.42 area but from there look for a correction to the entire decline from 0.8263.
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